The BJP and the Trinamool Congress have claimed alike that they crossed the century mark in the Assembly after voting in 152 of 294 seats ended on Thursday.
Union home minister Amit Shah said on Friday that after analysing data till Thursday midnight, he was confident the BJP would secure more than 110 of the 152 seats.
On the other hand, Trinamool national general secretary Abhishek Banerjee asserted that his party had also crossed the century mark in the first phase of the polls.
“We have done an assessment based on feedback from the ground till Thursday midnight. I can say confidently that the BJP is going to win more than 110 of 152 seats in the first phase, which means that after the conclusion of the second and final phase, the party is certain to secure a decisive majority to form the government in Bengal,” Shah told a press conference in Calcutta on Friday.
Addressing a rally on Friday as part of the campaign for the second phase of the Bengal Assembly polls, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said Trinamool would not be able to “open account” in a few districts.
A few hours later, Abhishek said Trinamool had already crossed the century mark in the first phase of elections held on Thursday.
“I am not a political astrologer. However, when I make a prediction, it works. You know my predictions were correct in 2021 and 2024. I can say it will work again in 2026. I am telling you, we have crossed the century mark in yesterday’s first phase election,” Abhishek said at a public meeting.
Such claims are not new, particularly from ruling and Opposition parties asserting that they will form the government. However, in this election, the SIR drive and an unprecedentedly high voter turnout have led to multiple ground-level predictions favouring both the BJP and Trinamool.
In the first phase, Bengal witnessed a 92.98 per cent voter turnout across 152 seats. During its assessment, the BJP concluded that the high turnout reflected a large number of Hindu voters, who had earlier refrained from exercising their franchise, coming out to vote — something the party believes worked in its favour. Some BJP leaders claimed that typically 20–30 per cent of Hindu voters used to abstain from voting. This time, the RSS and other saffron ecosystem groups launched a massive campaign urging Hindu voters to cast their votes early, even before breakfast.
“Minority voters always come out to vote, and this time, turnout among them is higher because of SIR-related concerns. The significant factor is that Hindu voters, who were our prime target, have turned out in large numbers. So, we are confident that the electoral outcome will be different,” said a BJP leader.
However, in recent elections, high voter turnout has often worked as a pro-incumbency factor, including in the post-SIR Bihar Assembly elections last year. Even a section of BJP insiders is uncertain whether the trend could benefit Trinamool.
During the press conference, Shah explained why he believed the high turnout would favour the BJP.
“There is strong anti-incumbency in Bengal this time. In fact, it was similar in the last election (in 2021). However, that election was not entirely free from intimidation. There were instances of vote looting, and many of our voters were prevented from exercising their franchise. In some places, even BJP workers tried to escort voters carrying TMC flags, but that effort failed,” said Shah.
“This time, from the very beginning, the Election Commission, police, CAPF and the entire administration prioritised a free and fair election, and that has been ensured. So, we are confident,” he added.
Trinamool, however, claimed that people voted for Mamata to ensure her return to power for a fourth consecutive term. The party also dismissed the BJP’s narrative, arguing that the numbers did not support claims of record turnout.
Trinamool MP Derek O’Brien has presented statistics to argue that despite a higher turnout percentage in 2026 compared to 2021, the total number of votes
decreased.
“Amit, it’s so easy to EXPOSE you. And your attempt to create fake narratives. Here is hard data to bust BJP propaganda on Phase 1: total votes cast in 2026 have decreased compared to 2021,” he wrote on X.
Then, he explained that the turnout was 84 per cent in 2021 when 3.10 crore of 3.67 crore electors exercised their franchise in the 152 constituencies. After the SIR exercise, the total electors were 3.33 crore, and the voter turnout was 92.70 per cent, as 3.09 crore people cast their votes, said O’Brien.
Chief minister Mamata Banerjee said the BJP would not win even half the seats it had last time and would get a “big zero” in several districts.