The White House’s move to impose a steep $100,000 fee on H-1B visa applications could sharply curb immigrant work authorisations, with monthly approvals falling by as many as 5,500, according to economists at JPMorgan Chase. But Germany and the UK are moving quickly to position themselves as attractive alternatives for skilled Indian professionals.
According to JPMorgan Chase economists Abiel Reinhart and Michael Feroli, while the impact of the new visa fee is small relative to the overall US labour market, the effect will be heavily concentrated on technology companies and Indian professionals, who account for the majority of H-1B approvals.
Computer-related roles represented nearly two-thirds of approvals in fiscal 2024, while 71 per cent of all visas were granted to Indian nationals. Of the 141,000 new H-1B petitions approved last year, about 65,000 were processed abroad, making them most vulnerable to the fee.
“If all of them were to stop, it would reduce work authorisation for immigrants by up to 5,500 per month, unless immigrants are able to use other visa categories to get employment,” a Bloomberg report quoting Reinhart and Feroli said.
Notably, the policy shift comes as US hiring has cooled significantly, with employers adding an average of just 29,000 jobs per month over the past quarter. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell attributed part of the slowdown to reduced immigration.
Dual benefits Nobel laureate Paul Krugman argues that allowing highly educated foreigners to work in the US significantly boosts GDP and tax revenues while narrowing income inequality by expanding the supply of skilled labour. With most H-1B holders in the technology sector, their presence also generates “positive externalities,” strengthening innovation clusters like Silicon Valley and fostering growth for other high-tech firms, he said.
As US entry becomes more costly and uncertain, Europe and the UK are stepping up to capture Indian talent.
German ambassador to India Philipp Ackermann issued an open call on the social media platform X to highly skilled Indian professionals, highlighting Germany’s “reliable, modern, and predictable” migration policies. He likened the framework to a German car “that goes in a straight line with no zig-zags,” in contrast to recent US policy shifts. Indians, he emphasised, are among the top earners in Germany, contributing significantly to the economy and welfare system.
The UK is also pitching openness. Finance minister Rachel Reeves, speaking at the opening of fintech firm Revolut’s new London headquarters, said Britain would ease entry routes for high-skilled workers. Contrasting US restrictions, she underlined that London’s role as a financial centre depends on global talent inflows.