The Indian economy, which is now the fifth largest in the world, will be bigger than Germany and Japan in the next three years, Niti Aayog CEO B.V.R. Subrahmanyam said on Thursday.
“We will be bigger than Germany and Japan in three years’ time. By 2047, we could be the second largest economy ($30 trillion),” he said in New Delhi, according to a PTI
report.
“End of next year, we will be the fourth largest. Year after that will be the third largest,” he added, commenting on the Indian economy, which stands at $4.3 trillion, according to the IMF.
The Niti Aayog CEO noted that problems faced by middle-income countries are very different from those in a low-income country.
“It is nothing about feeding the poor or, you know, clothing the naked. It is about how you become a knowledge economy,” he said.
Subrahmanyam further said India can become an education hub for the world as the single biggest advantage it has, keeping all other things aside, is its democracy. He also pointed out that Japan is taking 15,000 Indian nurses, Germany is taking 20,000 healthcare workers as they do not have people, and the family systems have broken down there.
“India will be a stable supplier of working age people across the world...this is going to be our single biggest strength,” he said.
Growth forecast trimmed: Fitch Ratings on Thursday cut India’s GDP growth estimate by 10 basis points to 6.4 per cent for the current fiscal, but retained the projections for the next financial year, on concerns over a ‘severe’ escalation in global trade war.
“It is hard to predict US trade policy with any confidence. Massive policy uncertainty is hurting business investment prospects, equity price falls are reducing household wealth, and US exporters will be hit by retaliation,” Fitch said in its special update to quarterly Global Economic Outlook (GEO).
Fitch also cut the world growth projections in 2025 by 0.4 percentage points and China and US growth by 0.5 percentage points from its March GEO.
With regard to India, Fitch cut GDP growth estimates for both the 2024-25 fiscal and the current 2025-26 fiscal by 10 basis points to 6.2 per cent and 6.4 per cent, respectively. For the 2026-27 fiscal year, growth has been retained at 6.3 per cent.
The GDP growth rate of the US is expected to remain positive at 1.2 per cent for
2025. China’s growth is expected to fall below 4 per cent both this year and next,
while growth in the eurozone will remain stuck well below 1 per cent, according to Fitch projections.
It said the US “Liberation Day” tariff hikes were far worse than expected.