Russian crude oil heading to India plunged to its lowest this month since October 2022, sharply down from the average seen in the first 9 months of 2025, as domestic refiners gear up for the US sanctions on two Russian oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil, effective Thursday midnight.
Information accessed from global real-time data and analytics provider Kpler showed crude supplies averaged at 982,000 barrels per day from Russia in November, compared with 1.75 million BPD in January to September.
Indian refiners are actively diversifying supply, increasing intake from West Asia (Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, UAE), Latin America (Brazil, Colombia, Guyana), West Africa, and North America (US, Canada) to offset lower Russian volumes, Kpler observed.
Industry expects Russian barrel flows to decline noticeably post November 21. No Indian refiner other than Nayara’s Vadinar facility is likely to take the risk of dealing with either Lukoil or Rosneft.
Opinions are divided on whether public and private sector refineries will procure from non-sanctioned Russian oil producers. With India closing in on a mini trade deal with the US, the probabilities of Indian refiners buying noticeable quantities of Russian oil are low.
“Despite near-term declines, a complete halt to Russian imports is unlikely. Discounted Russian barrels remain attractive for margins, and India’s energy policy continues to prioritise affordability and security over geopolitical pressure. Unless secondary sanctions directly target Indian buyers or New Delhi imposes formal restrictions, Russian crude will keep flowing to India, though via increasingly diversified and less transparent channels,” Sumit Ritolia, lead research analyst at Kpler, said.