Moody’s Ratings on Thursday projected India’s economy to expand 7 per cent in 2025, with growth easing to 6.5 per cent the following year, supported by robust domestic demand, export diversification and a neutral-to-easy monetary policy stance.
In its latest Global Macro Outlook, Moody’s said India remains the fastest-growing economy in the G-20 and is expected to maintain a 6.5 per cent growth pace through 2027.
The agency noted that strong infrastructure spending and healthy consumption continue to underpin activity, even as the private sector stays cautious on capital expenditure.
Real GDP growth for the 2025 calendar year has been pegged at 7 per cent, up from an estimated 6.7 per cent in 2024.
Moody’s said Indian exporters have shown resilience despite facing 50 per cent US tariffs on selected products, with overall outbound shipments rising 6.75 per cent in September even as exports to the United States fell 11.9 per cent.
“We expect its economy to continue to grow around 6.5 per cent in 2026 and 2027, supported by a neutral-to-easy monetary policy stance amid low inflation,” the agency said.
It added that steady international capital inflows, buoyed by positive investor sentiment, have helped buffer external shocks.
On the global economy, Moody’s said growth is likely to remain steady but subdued, with advanced economies expanding modestly and emerging markets retaining comparatively stronger momentum. It warned that rising trade restrictions have increased the possibility of US-China decoupling, even as other major economies deepen bilateral ties.
For China, Moody’s forecast 5 per cent growth in 2025 aided by government stimulus and strong exports, with real GDP expansion gradually slowing to 4.2 per cent by 2027.
The agency expects global real GDP growth to hover between 2.5 and 2.6 per cent in 2026 and 2027, after an estimated 2.6 per cent in 2025 and 2.9 per cent in 2024.
(With inputs from PTI)