India’s top oil companies have launched a global hunt for crude oil to replace supplies from Russian giants Rosneft and Lukoil which have been blacklisted by the US.
India has been buying about 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) from Russia, out of which about 1.2 million bpd come from the two sanctioned giants Rosneft and Lukoil.
After November 21, the cutoff date set by the US, India will need to stop buying from these two companies, particularly in the short term. That means Russian crude arrivals are likely to drop sharply from December onwards and also January. India gets about one-third of its total fuel imports from Russia.
Crude oil prices shot up from $60 to $65.87 – or almost 5 per cent – after the US announced it was taking the drastic step of slapping financial sanctions on the two Russian giants and anyone who buys from them. Prices could rise again in December and January as the oil from these two companies mostly goes off the market.
China is also likely to stop buying seaborne crude from Rosneft and Lukoil and that could add to the pressure on global prices.
Nevertheless, analysts reckon prices will stabilise after the initial impact.
"The broader market impact will likely remain contained over the longer term," says Sumit Ritolia, lead analyst, Kpler, a market research company that focuses on energy and shipping. Ritolia adds: "We expect shipments to remain resilient beyond the initial reshuffling stage over the next month or two."
Global oil prices have been falling in recent months as West Asian producers like Saudi Arabia hike production. Simultaneously, global oil consumption has been weakening.
Reliance Industries, the biggest buyer of Russian crude in 2025, is scrambling to make up for possible shortfalls and has been buying larger quantities of different grades of crude oil from countries like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Qatar and even the US, according to agency reports.
“The largest importer of Russian grades, Reliance Industries Ltd. (RIL), faces the most immediate challenges," says Kpler.
A Reliance spokesperson insisted it would abide by all global regulations. "The Company remains fully committed to maintaining its longstanding and impeccable record of adherence to applicable sanctions and regulatory frameworks."
The new sanctions regime doesn't mean that Russian crude will stop coming into the Indian market. It is almost certain to keep flowing in via smaller traders or other intermediaries. Says Ritolia: "Russian barrels will not disappear — they will continue flowing into India via intermediaries or non-sanctioned traders, albeit with lower transparency." He adds: "Unless secondary sanctions are enforced or the Government of India formally restricts Russian imports (both unlikely under current geopolitical conditions), Russian grades will remain a key part of the mix."