India’s economic growth estimate for the current fiscal was revised upward to 7.6 per cent on Friday following a revamp of the GDP calculation framework, compared with 7.4 per cent under the previous series and 7.1 per cent in FY25.
The revision reflects a change in the base year to 2022-23 from 2011-12 and improved measurement of faster-growing segments of the economy.
However, real GDP growth moderated to 7.8 per cent in October-December (Q3FY26) from 8.4 per cent last quarter.
Aditi Nayar, chief economist at Icra, said the sequential moderation was largely driven by agriculture and non-manufacturing industrial sectors.
Rumki Majumdar, economist at Deloitte India, said investment activity strengthened during the quarter, with gross fixed capital formation rising 7.8 per cent. Consumption growth improved to 8.7 per cent from 8 per cent in the previous quarter, indicating scope for further improvement in investment spending.
On the production side, manufacturing output expanded 13.3 per cent in Q3FY26, reflecting a strong rebound in industrial activity. Nominal GDP for FY26 is estimated to grow 8.6 per cent.
Under the revised series, FY24 growth has been sharply marked down to 7.2 per cent from 9.2 per cent under the old methodology. FY25 growth has been revised upward to 7.1 per cent from 6.5 per cent earlier.
Analysts attributed the revisions to methodological changes, including the segregation of activities within multi-activity enterprises, improved coverage of the unincorporated sector, adoption of double deflation and greater use of GST and administrative data.
“The IMF does a data assessment under Article 4 discussions. There are three or four major areas of concern...those have been more than well handled,” said Saurabh Garg, secretary, MoSPI.