The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised India’s growth projection for the 2025-26 fiscal year to 7.3 per cent, citing stronger-than-anticipated economic performance in recent quarters.
The revised estimate marks an increase of 0.7 percentage point from the IMF’s October forecast.
In its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) update released on Monday, the Washington-based multilateral agency also revised India’s growth forecast for 2026-27 to 6.4 per cent, up from its earlier estimate of 6.2 per cent.
“In India, growth is revised upward by 0.7 percentage point to 7.3 per cent for 2025 (fiscal FY26), reflecting the better-than-expected outturn in the third quarter of the year and strong momentum in the fourth quarter,” the IMF said.
The Fund expects growth to ease in the following years. “Growth is projected to moderate to 6.4 per cent in 2026-27 and 2027-28 as cyclical and temporary factors wane,” it added.
Official data from India’s statistics ministry shows that GDP growth during April–September of 2025-26 stood at 8 per cent, supported by an 8.2 per cent expansion in the July–September quarter.
Separately, the First Advance Estimates released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) project the Indian economy to grow by 7.4 per cent in the current fiscal year. Growth in 2024-25 was recorded at 6.5 per cent.
On inflation, the IMF said price pressures are expected to ease further. Inflation is projected to return close to target levels following a decline in 2025, driven by lower food prices.
The Reserve Bank of India aims to keep consumer price index (CPI) based inflation at 4 per cent, with a tolerance band of 2 percentage points on either side.
The IMF’s update also offered a steady outlook for the global economy. Global growth is projected at 3.3 per cent in 2026 and 3.2 per cent in 2027.
“The forecast marks a small upward revision for 2026 and no change for 2027 compared with that in the October 2025 WEO,” the report said.
For emerging market and developing economies, growth is expected to remain just above 4 per cent in both 2026 and 2027. China’s growth forecast for 2025 has been revised upward by 0.2 percentage point to 5 per cent.
Global headline inflation is expected to decline from an estimated 4.1 per cent in 2025 to 3.8 per cent in 2026 and further to 3.4 per cent in 2027, the IMF said.