Former ambassador V S Seshadri has said unpredictability in tariff policies and unilateral measures by the United States coupled with China's "bid for economic supremacy and technological dominance" as well as widening geopolitical rifts have created turbulence in the global trading system.
Delivering a lecture on 'International Trade Law: Challenges and Outlook' at the India International University of Legal Education and Research (IIULER) on Thursday, he said these developments have undermined the predictability and stability that are essential for international trade.
The talk was part of the Union Ministry of External Affairs' Distinguished Lecture Series.
Seshadri, a former IFS officer who served as India's envoy to Slovenia and Myanmar, explained the diverging strategies of the US, the European Union and China, who together account for 42 per cent of global merchandise trade and spoke about the implications for India.
Referring to Washington's trade policies, he said that under Donald Trump's second term, the US has expanded the use of unilateral measures, imposing tariffs even on Free Trade Agreement (FTA) partners under the guise of "reciprocal tariffs".
"These measures are now being deployed not only to rebalance trade and boost domestic manufacturing, but also for broader goals such as economic security, curbing immigration, penalising buyers of Russian oil and combatting drug trafficking," Seshadri, also an international trade expert, noted.
He pointed out that such actions, often taken under emergency powers or national security grounds, "undermine the long-standing practice of 'less than full reciprocity' traditionally extended to developing country partners." Seshadri highlighted that bilateral deals imposed by the US often compel partner countries to commit to energy, agricultural and defence imports from the US while offering only partial rollback of tariffs in return - arrangements that may conflict with WTO rules.
On China, the former diplomat said that while Beijing presents itself as a supporter of globalisation, its actions reflect a "bid for economic primacy and technological dominance", citing excess production, aggressive market capture and the weaponisation of dependencies.
According to Seshadri, the EU generally favours multilateralism but has also resorted to protectionist mechanisms, such as the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), whose WTO compatibility is yet to be tested.
On India, Seshadri said its share in global trade remains modest at 2.3 per cent, limiting its influence, even as its trade imbalance with China continues to grow.
He praised New Delhi's four-pronged strategy of blocking risky investments and apps, boosting domestic competitiveness through Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes, building supply chain partnerships, and expanding its FTA portfolio.
Without naming Pakistan, he said, "A neighbouring country has chosen a self-destructive path by surrendering its resources to the US under the guise of a bilateral trade agreement." Seshadri also cited an ongoing legal challenge in the US against presidential powers to impose tariffs under emergency measures, describing it as "the most consequential trade case" with the verdict now pending before the Supreme Court.
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