Oil is likely to rise by $3-5 per barrel when trading resumes on Sunday evening after the US attacked Iran at the weekend, market analysts said, with gains expected to accelerate only if Iran retaliates hard and causes a major oil supply disruption.
US President Donald Trump said he had “obliterated” Iran’s main nuclear sites in strikes overnight, joining an Israeli assault in an escalation of conflict in West Asia as Tehran vowed to defend itself. Iran is Opec’s third-largest crude producer.
“An oil price jump is expected,” said Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad and a former OPEC official. “Even in the absence of immediate retaliation, markets are likely to price in a higher geopolitical risk premium.”
Global oil benchmark Brent crude could gain $3 to $5 per barrel when markets open, SEB analyst Ole Hvalbye said in a note. Brent settled at $77.01 a barrel on Friday and US West Texas Intermediate at $73.84.
Ole Hansen, analyst at Saxo Bank, said crude could open $4 to $5 dollars higher, with potential for some long positioning being unwound.
Crude had settled down on Friday after the US imposed fresh Iran-related sanctions, including on two entities based in Hong Kong, and counter-terrorism-related sanctions, according to a notice on the US treasury department website.
Brent has risen 11 per cent while WTI has gained around 10 per cent since the conflict began on June 13, with Israel targeting Iran’s nuclear sites and Iranian missiles hitting buildings in Tel Aviv.