1. ‘How much worse can it get?’ is where the ‘buy’ note begins. Today, I would be buying into Bengal from where it can’t get worse (My guru Buffet said rule one is not to lose money and rule two is to remember rule one). For years, Bengal prompted the word ‘Sell.’ Today, I have little to lose on it.
2. There is an underestimated advantage: Bengal has plenty of catch-up room. States already growing at high levels are under pressure to sustain momentum; Bengal merely needs to normalise to emerge as an outperformer. When a depressed asset begins improving from a low base, the percentage growth can surprise. There is also a contrarian principle a seasoned investor understands: the best returns often emerge when consensus disbelief is the highest. No one makes extraordinary returns buying obvious stories at peak optimism. Bengal may be entering that early ‘people laugh at you before they envy you’ phase. On the markets, sentiment rerates quicker before fundamentals fully improve.
3. After one has worked with two ‘status quo loving’ managers for nearly five decades (the last few years of Buddhababu were different), I like the sound of ‘new management’. Especially, if this new management enjoys a pro-business swagger. It tells me ‘Something good may come out of this’. This new management has a hunger in the belly. There is an optimism that ‘They will professionalise the business.’
4. Analysts seek management alignment. Is the board, promoter and management speaking the same governance language? Will this arrangement be functionally seamless? Will there any loss in translation? Is someone in the value chain likely to say, ‘But I wish to run the company differently’? Unlikely. We have not seen such a streamlined alignment in nearly 50 years. That excites me: what we are likely to get out of this is not the pedestrian 5.8% growth.
5. I like the sound of Niti Ayog being re-charged with the re-industrialisation of Bengal. Will it deliver? I don’t know. But I like to entertain the possibility of a national institution sparing its time to prepare an informed blueprint of a sustainable rebound. It is the same feeling that an analyst with a ‘Buy’ report feels when a larger brokerage house also puts out a ‘Strong buy’. I can always get it wrong; they can’t.
6. The BJP replaced Naveen Patnaik after 24 years in Odisha; within two years, more than 3,00,000 crore of investments were announced in that state. By chance? No, by design. There was a point for the ruling party to prove. Now assume a multiplier of 2 and you have an incremental $50 billion being added to Odisha’s economy. My job is to buy into Bengal on the basis of a possibility: one possibility is that we might have the same – or larger – capex happening in Bengal in three years before we go to the elections in 2029 (and would not be surprised if that started from Singur to add to the drama).
7. Any mega-conglomerate buying now into Bengal – when its stock has been hitting ‘seller freeze’ for years – will get into land, talent and opportunity at the lowest holistic cost (guests from Mumbai who dine in Kolkata say, ‘That’s all?’ after seeing the bill). Kolkata is also the most undervalued metropolitan asset in India. The lowest metro rail fare in Kolkata is Rs 5 (would you believe?). The fare between two furthest Kolkata metro rail stations across 32km (Garia to Dakshineshwar) is Rs 30; the furthest fare in Mumbai is Rs 80; in Hyderabad it is Rs 69; in Delhi Rs 64. Somebody called Kolkata ‘gareeb-parwar’ (protector of the poor). And yet, most emerging urban centres in India would spend trillions to create what Kolkata already possesses.
The lowest metro rail fare in Kolkata is Rs 5. The fare between two furthest Kolkata metro rail stations across 32km (Garia to Dakshineshwar) is Rs 30; the furthest fare in Mumbai is Rs 80; in Hyderabad it is Rs 69; in Delhi Rs 64
8. This could be the right time for Bengal to forge deeper links with Bangladesh (power wheeling a low-hanging fruit) and before BIMSTEC (South Asia road network starting from Kolkata to Bangkok to possibly Vietnam) becomes a reality – what a gamechanger this could be. For nearly 200 years, Kolkata’s prosperity was derived from geography. BIMSTEC potentially reopens the geography across one of the world’s most strategic maritime regions. Remember that Singapore, Dubai and Hing Kong became prosperous by becoming gateways. That is what Kolkata now stands to become in a larger sense as its port economy potentially explodes. Singapore monetised geography (which Kolkata failed at following Partition). The BIMSTEC could well be our golden chance. Its importance is not diplomatic but civilisational.
9. The fundamentals. When one buys into Bengal, one gets Kolkata (metropolis, and a matured social architecture), north-east and eastern India connectivity cum coastal access, at a below-book value cost. If Bengal industrialises again, it will not be starting from zero. Unlike greenfield geographies, Bengal possesses dormant industrial memory. The state still understands manufacturing, engineering, labour systems, ports, railways, finance and trade. Industrial culture may have weakened; it has not disappeared. It is like buying a company for Rs 1,000 crore in cash and then finding that it already has Rs 800 crore sitting in its bank account.
10. What the last five decades have not irrepairably dented are educational institutions that still comprise a reservoir of intellectual capital. IIT, IIM Calcutta, ISI, Presidency University, Jadavpur University, medical colleges, legal ecosystem and scientific institutions still create a talent pipeline that most states would envy – that is sadly ‘exported’ to the other states. If policy and opportunity align, Bengal may not need to import capability; it merely needs to retain and re-attract what it already produces. Besides, the next industrial revolution may not depend only on smokestacks. It may depend on knowledge, design, analytics, healthcare, education, AI support systems, legal services and creative industries. In such a world, Bengal’s traditional strengths may suddenly look modern again.
What the last five decades have not irrepairably dented are educational institutions that still comprise a reservoir of intellectual capital. IIT, IIM Calcutta, ISI, Presidency University, Jadavpur University, medical colleges, legal ecosystem and scientific institutions still create a talent pipeline that most states would envy – that is sadly ‘exported’ to the other states
11. Bengal possesses one advantage that balance sheets do not capture: emotional capital. Millions who left Bengal still retain a psychological attachment to the State. They may have left Kolkata; Kolkata has never left them. A number of them ask: ‘If I return can I get a decent job even if it is 25 per cent lower than what I am earning today?’ If confidence returns, a section of the Bengali diaspora may invest, mentor, relocate operations or create philanthropic and entrepreneurial platforms in the State.
12. Bengal’s creative economy is waiting to be monetised better. Cinema, literature, music, design, cuisine, Durga Puja tourism, heritage architecture and cultural festivals collectively constitute a soft-power asset unmatched in much of India. One successful policy ecosystem could convert culture into serious employment and tourism revenues. The irony is that relatively few people know. Only after Kolkata got the UNESCO tag did the rest of India recognise that there was something like the largest street-based installation art festival happening in their own country – 20 times the Edinburgh Festival (based on unique visitors) and 3x times the Brazilian Carnival! Maybe economic transformation is the tailwind the Durga Pujo waiting for.
Bengal’s creative economy is waiting to be monetised better
13. Bengal enjoys one social advantage that economists understate: coexistence. Despite periodic tensions, Bengal’s long history of linguistic, religious and intellectual coexistence has historically made it easier for outsiders to settle, work and integrate. Social comfort matters more to investment decisions than spreadsheets admit. In a world where people are wont to put ethnic labels on others, Kolkata does not suffer xenophobia (fear of foreigners). Bengalis celebrate Christmas (Boro Din) like no other. If fresh intellectual capital comes in, it may find the city welcoming. In a year or two, it may feel at home and never want to leave.
14. Bengal has something markets reward enormously: narrative potential. Investors do not merely buy numbers; they buy stories of transformation. Gujarat became a story. Hyderabad became a story. Vietnam became a story. If Bengal turns even modestly credible, global and domestic capital may chase the narrative long before the transformation is complete.
Bengal has something markets reward enormously: narrative potential. Investors do not merely buy numbers; they buy stories of transformation
15. The end of ‘conflictual federalism’ — 49 years in the making. West Bengal endured 49 years of conflicting central-state relationships marked by disputes, contradictions, and ideological tensions that intensified in recent years. That friction meant stalled central funds, blocked projects, and a state perpetually fighting Delhi instead of working with it. That structural impediment has now been removed overnight. The peace dividend from cooperative federalism alone could be worth several percentage points of growth.
16. The end of the perception deficit. When I hold a stock while everyone is saying ‘dead management’ there is a danger I might sell in a weak moment. When I hold a stock when some informed fund managers start saying ‘I find Bengal interesting’, that interest might get me to buy more. This is the reality with Bengal. For decades, everyone sniggered at Bengal (the first were the ones who left it). Now no one dare (this is what happens when the party that runs Delhi runs Bengal). In a year, Bengal could become perception-neutral. In five years, Bengal could turn perception-positive. Then it might be easier for managements to explain to shareholders that they are commissioning a new Bengal plant without being roasted at the AGM.
17. The world is watching (even Donald Trump congratulated Modi for the BJP winning the Bengal elections with the words ‘historic’ and ‘decisive’, would you believe, as if the whole world’s progress depended on a corner of the world called Bengal). If Bengal was the most sniggered-at story for 50 years, it now the most watched story. Puts pressure on the management to perform. As a shareholder, I can sleep well with this thought.
Conclusion: Sadly Bengal is not a listed stock. Much as I wish to buy, I can’t. Before I launch a dedicated Bengal exchange traded fund (ETF) I might hire security guards to do ‘dekh-bhaal’, and buy into a large Singur land parcel on the assumption that the Tatas would return. I would do the same in Tajpur and would not be surprised if the Adanis came soon with a port, cable landing station, data centre, logistics park, clutch of industries and rail connectivity – virtually replicating Mundra on the eastern coast. And if they do, I might think of calling my children back from abroad!