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With the 98th Academy Awards just days away, the race appears to be narrowing down to a face-off between two films: Sinners and One Battle After Another. The former — a genre-blending vampire drama directed by Ryan Coogler — has emerged as a juggernaut this awards season, even setting a record with 16 Oscar nominations. Meanwhile, Paul Thomas Anderson’s political action saga has also been adding trophies to its kitty at major awards like Golden Globes and Bafta.
Ahead of the ceremony on March 16 (IST), here are The Telegraph Online’s picks for key categories at the 98th Oscars.
Best Picture
Our Pick: Sinners
Could Win: One Battle After Another
Dark Horse: Hamnet
Ryan Coogler’s Sinners currently has the momentum for a successful Oscar campaign. With a record nomination tally and broad support across acting and technical fields, the film has demonstrated the kind of industry-wide appeal that typically translates into Best Picture victory.
However, One Battle After Another remains a serious threat. The film has dominated several critics’ and guild awards and represents the kind of auteur-driven cinema the Academy often rallies around, particularly when rewarding a long-overdue filmmaker like Paul Thomas Anderson.
And, with a Bafta and Golden Globe in its kitty, Chloé Zhao’s period drama Hamnet might pull off an upset that no one saw coming.
Best Director
Our Pick: Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Could Win: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Dark Horse: Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
Coogler’s direction in Sinners stands out for blending horror, music and social commentary centred on Black history. The way he brought together themes of evolution of Black music, slavery, and zombies, has never been attempted before.
Anderson, however, remains a strong contender. A win for One Battle After Another would finally reward one of the most respected filmmakers of his generation. Meanwhile, Zhao’s emotional storytelling in Hamnet has been widely praised by critics, making her the dark horse in the category.
Best Actor
Our Pick: Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Could Win: Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
Dark Horse: Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Michael B. Jordan’s commanding performance as twin brothers in Sinners anchors the film’s genre-bending narrative and has been widely credited for giving emotional weight to its ambitious scope.
Meanwhile, Wagner Moura’s nuanced performance in The Secret Agent has earned strong critical praise. He speaks through his silence, and makes the viewers root for him as he attempts to flee the military junta in Brazil.
On the other hand, Ethan Hawke’s turn in Blue Moon represents the kind of quiet-yet-powerful performance that often appeals to the Academy members, making him a credible threat.
Best Actress
Our Pick: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Could Win: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I'd Kick You
Dark Horse: Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue
Jessie Buckley has dominated much of the awards season for her haunting performance in Hamnet, a role that captures grief and resilience with remarkable subtlety. Her win at the Actors has only strengthened her Oscar chances.
Rose Byrne, on the other hand, was an early favourite to win the Oscar for Best Actress, with wins at Golden Globes and Critics Choice. However, the momentum shifted towards Buckley towards the end of awards season.
Kate Hudson, meanwhile, has enjoyed a late-season momentum for Song Sung Blue, with her charismatic performance reminding voters of her versatility.
Best Supporting Actor
Our Pick: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Could Win: Delroy Lindo, Sinners
Dark Horse: Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another
Sean Penn is a formidable competitor in the supporting actor category for his turn as the ruthless, corrupt military officer on the hunt for his old nemesis in One Battle After Another. He also stands a chance to join the elite list of actors who’ve won three Oscars.
Benicio Del Toro’s comedic turn in the same film arguably offers another viable choice for the Academy members.
Delroy Lindo’s performance in Sinners as an old harmonica player has also been a critics’ favourite this year. He is one of the film’s emotional anchors.
Best Supporting Actress
Our Pick: Amy Madigan, Weapons
Could Win: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Dark Horse: Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
It is rare for an actor from a supernatural/horror flick to bag an Oscar in acting categories. Demi Moore’s Oscar snub last year for The Substance is still fresh in our memories. However, Amy Madigan’s turn in Weapons as the villain Gladys is a role that was equal parts creepy and fun. It’s a classic Academy-friendly supporting performance: commanding and memorable.
Still, Wunmi Mosaku’s emotionally layered role in Sinners has earned significant acclaim and could emerge as a late surprise if the film sweeps multiple categories.
And one should not rule out the possibility of Teyana Taylor taking home the trophy, especially since she won the Golden Globes.
Best Casting
Our Pick: Sinners
Could Win: One Battle After Another
Dark Horse: Hamnet
The newly introduced casting category is likely to reward films whose ensembles feel essential to the storytelling. Sinners stands out for assembling a diverse and dynamic cast that reinforces the film’s themes.
Not to be left behind, One Battle After Another too boasts some powerhouse names, from Leonardo DiCaprio to Sean Peen, Regina Hall and Benico Del Toro.
And just like Best Picture, the team of Hamnet could play a spoiler for casting too.
Best Animated Feature
Our Pick: KPop Demon Hunters
Could Win: Zootopia 2
Dark Horse: Elio
KPop Demon Hunters emerged as a global phenomenon last year for its vibrant animation style, energetic storytelling, and foot-tapping K-pop music, making it a standout among this year’s nominees. Still, Zootopia 2 brings the strength of a globally popular franchise and could benefit from broad family-audience appeal within the Academy’s voting body. Meanwhile, Pixar could hope that their story of the underdog orphan Elio could pull a rabbit out of the hat and take home that Oscar.
Best International Feature
Our Pick: The Secret Agent
Could Win: Sentimental Value
Dark Horse: It Was Just An Accident
Norway’s Sentimental Value has built strong momentum on the festival circuit and across international awards bodies, making it a strong contender for the category. The Secret Agent, however, has been widely praised for its gripping political storytelling and compelling lead performance by Wagner Moura.
Meanwhile, as war rages on in Iran, Jafar Panahi’s Palme d’Or winning drama It Was Just An Accident could hope for pulling off an upset.
The 98th Oscars will be held at the Dolby Theater in Los Angeles on March 16 (IST). Conan O'Brien will return as the host for the second time this year.
