The state is far from receiving normal rainfall this monsoon with the deficiency factor just widening everyday.
The state-level monsoon rainfall deficiency went up from 23 per cent on July 31 to 26 per cent on August 31. The corresponding rainfall figures for Patna on the other hand, have gone down from 1 per cent surplus as on July 31 to 7 per cent deficit as on August 31 (see chart).
India Meteorological Department (IMD), Patna, director (radar) Ashish Sen told The Telegraph on Sunday: “The state received good rainfall between July 5 and August 15 as the monsoon trough line was in normal position complemented with favourable weather components. In fact, though the cumulative rainfall deficiency from June 1 to August 31 is 26 per cent but the same for July and August is only 14 per cent.”
He added: “The monsoon trough line started oscillating from its normal position from the third week of August. While oscillating north to its normal position, the trough line went up to the foothill of the Himalayas and in south it reached up to the coastal Odisha and Andhra Pradesh. As a result of the oscillating trough line, Delhi, Haryana, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra received good rainfall but Bengal, Bihar and Jharkhand received less than normal. In fact, there has been negligible rainfall in Bihar since August 23.”
According to the IMD records, only two of total 38 districts have shown surplus monsoon rainfall figures till August 31. The rainfall deficiency in five districts was above 50 per cent with the highest deficiency in the state standing at 75 per cent for Buxar. Eight districts each received deficient rainfall in the category of 40 to 49 per cent and 30 to 39 per cent, respectively.
The Met department has further claimed that monsoon rainfall is most likely to remain deficient in September as well.
“Monsoon is weak over Bihar at present and there would not be any significant rainfall across the state at least for the next two days. Moreover, the overall rainfall in September is also likely to be deficient only,” said D.C. Gupta, the Patna IMD director.
Earlier, the IMD had forecast 10 per cent deficient rainfall in its revised long-range forecast for the entire country. Weathermen have also claimed that El Nino is in effect in the country this monsoon.
“El Nino is a term referred to warming up of sea surface temperature in the Pacific Ocean, particularly at the Peru Coast that has been associated with poor rainfall in the past. Though chances of the El Nino effect were negligible in June but many of the 11 parameters used for measuring El Nino effect showed positive for it by July-end,” said a senior Met scientist.