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Forecast of 6% growth

Mumbai, Aug. 11: Experts have forecast a growth of around 6 per cent in the gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter ended June, indicating the emergence of green shoots in the economy.

The outlook is optimistic considering the sub-5-per-cent growth recorded during the fourth quarter of 2013-14.

Though many economists expect GDP to come in at around 5.5 per cent for the quarter, there is a growing number who feel that it can be between 5.5 per cent and 6 per cent.

Just days after Barclays said in a report that the economy could grow at around 6 per cent, Standard Chartered Bank today projected a 6 per cent growth. This will be the fastest growth recorded since March 2012 and much higher than 4.6 per cent recorded in the fourth quarter of 2013-14.

The GDP figure will be released on August 29.

On the factors that could contribute to the growth, StanChart said the rebound in export growth at around 7.5 per cent after a 2 per cent contraction in the preceding quarter could be one reason.

It said a favourable base effect along with a slowdown in sectors such as commercial vehicles, electricity generation and mining should improve growth. However, StanChart said the number should not be seen as a clear sign that a recovery had indeed begun.

“We do expect a rebound in actual economic activity, as indicated by improvements in consumer and business confidence surveys and ongoing policy changes. However, this is likely to be a story for the second half of 2014-15 and 2015-16, rather than the first half of 2014-15,” it added.

Meanwhile, Paris-based think tank OECD said growth was gaining momentum amid the new government initiating steps to bolster the economy.

 
 
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