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Forecast of four-day delay in monsoon

New Delhi, May 15: The monsoon is expected to strike Kerala between June 1 and June 9 this year, the India Meteorological Department said today, issuing a forecast that hints at a possible four-day delay in the arrival of the monsoon over the Indian mainland.

The IMD said the current weather conditions over the land and the seas around India suggest that the monsoon will advance over the Andaman Sea within three days and set in over Kerala by June 5, five days after the normal onset date of June 1.

But the weather agency’s forecast also comes with an error range of four days that could mean the monsoon could arrive any time between June 1 and June 9.

Observations over the past decades do not show any direct association between the dates of onset of monsoon rains over Kerala and the performance of the monsoon during the season from June through September.

Wind conditions and a considerable increase in the rainfall over the Bay of Bengal over the past few days suggest that the monsoon flow is likely to strengthen and deepen over the next three days.

The IMD uses six predictors to forecast the onset of the monsoon over Kerala. The actual dates of onset of the monsoon over the past nine years have fallen within the IMD’s four-day error margin, but have not overlapped with the forecasted onset dates.