Jamshedpur, Sept. 2: Hopes of a normal monsoon are on the verge of withering away.
If meteorological data are any indication, Jharkhand, which is already grappling with a deficit of 15 per cent, will receive below average rainfall this September — the last month of monsoon.
Satellite pictures show no favourable wind systems that can bring widespread and heavy rain over the state in the next 72 hours.
According to weathermen, the average normal for the month is 240mm. But, the climatic event called El Nino — a rise in sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean — will rob Jharkhand of its final shower show.
“Monsoon will not be very active this month. It will result in scattered rain unless there is strong low pressure or depression. The IMD too also predicted below average rainfall,” said A.K. Sen, the director of Patna Meteorological Office.
The senior meteorology official admitted that the warm El Nino phase, which is known to affect weather across the world, would also impact Jharkhand. According to him, the effect of El Nino was due to a rise of 0.5 degrees in the sea surface temperature in the Southern Hemisphere.
“We were not expecting the climatic cycle, linked to severe droughts in the past, this year. But, the El Nino has got a stranglehold over Jharkhand’s monsoon, which will have a bearing on rainfall activities,” Sen explained.
Climate experts also ruled out possibility of depressions and strong low pressure over the state later this month. “We are finding a peculiarity in the weather pattern this year. Though rainfall in Jharkhand so far has been close to normal, the state has been deprived of heavy rain due to depressions or strong low-pressure zones,” said A.K. Manjhi, a weather expert.
Usually, six to seven low-pressure troughs and depressions hit the state after August 10. But, this year not a single depression was seen. “Though there were two low-pressure formations, but they passed through neighbouring Odisha and Chhattisgarh. Most spells of rain were due to the impact of cyclonic circulations,” Manjhi said.
Met statistics also revealed that weather stations across the state had failed to record rainfall on the first two days of the month.
Normally, Jharkhand gets an average of 850mm, but till September 1, it received 720mm, a deficit of 15 per cent. The state will require another 350mm of rain to achieve the seasonal target. The average normal in four months (June to September) is 1,082.2mm.
August, however, was the silver lining. Several districts, including Ranchi, soaked in surplus rain. The capital recorded 439.7mm, about 100 more than normal. So far, Ranchi has received a seasonal rainfall of 811mm.
In comparison, the rain meter in Jamshedpur was laggard in August. The steel city recorded 271mm against an average of 323mm. July, however, saw Jamshedpur’s seasonal best of 480mm. So far, the city has recorded 953.8mm against an average of 955mm.