Patna, June 16: The weatherman has finally set the clock ticking for the monsoon to hit the parched state.
Based on a recent thrust in the central wing of the south-west monsoon curve, India Meteorological Department (IMD), Patna, on Saturday said the rains are likely to hit the state within the next 96 hours.
Ashish Sen, the director (radar) of IMD, Patna, told The Telegraph: “A strong high pressure belt in the upper atmosphere of the region covering Odisha, Bengal, Bihar and Jharkhand has triggered a fresh flow of the central wing of south-west monsoon.” He added: “Our observation today says it has reached the Odisha coast and would cover entire Odisha and Bengal in the next 48 hours. Thereafter, it is expected to hit Bihar and Jharkhand in another two days.”
South-west monsoon usually arrives in Bihar between June 11 and 13. Going by IMD’s claims this year, monsoon would arrive latest by June 20.
Sen further claimed that the eastern wing of the south-west monsoon curve is very close to the northern boundary of Bihar. This implies that the entry of the central wing would pull the eastern wing in the state, which is likely to be covered by monsoon within seven days from the date of entry of the central wing of monsoon.
On the basis of their findings, the weather scientists claimed that Bihar, Bengal, Uttar Pradesh and most of central India would witness 20 to 30 per cent deficit rainfall this June.
“According to APEC Climate Centre, South Korea, the multi-model ensemble forecast is showing that the south-west monsoon in June will either be normal or below normal over the Indian landmass. There is a possibility that monsoon rainfall will be 20 to 30 per cent below normal over northwest and central India, while it would be normal over the rest of the country.
The rice belt of Utter Pradesh and Bihar may receive normal or 10 to 20 per cent deficit monsoon rainfall in June, which would badly affect rice cultivation.
“IMD and the Centre are also aware of the normal to deficit monsoon rainfall forecast for June,” said Pradhan Parth Sarthi, the academic co-ordinator at Centre for Environmental Sciences, Central University of Bihar.
The Met department is, however, not denying the weather scientists’ claim of deficit rainfall in June.
“As the monsoon is expected to arrive eight days late and its normal active period in the state in June is around 20 days, thus deficient rain fall is most likely to be recorded this month,” Sen said.
“Moreover, there have been no signs of an aggressive entry of monsoon in the state, which could make up for the deficiency,” he added.