Calcutta, May 27: If the Left has any hope of a fightback in the municipal elections on May 30, it has to start from the Red belt of Bengal, spread across Burdwan, Birbhum, Hooghly and the three Maoist-hit districts.

Even in the last Lok Sabha polls that saw the decimation of the Left in large parts of south and north Bengal, these areas stood by the CPM, resisting the winds of change.

The importance of the Red belt, which has so far resisted Mamata Banerjee’s advance, is evident in the fact that the six districts, including the Maoist-affected West Midnapore, Bankura and Purulia, had given the Left 11 of the 15 Lok Sabha seats it won in 2009.

But even here, there are indications of change and the ground shifting from beneath the CPM’s feet. This is evident from the Assembly-wise deficits the Left had in the 2009 parliamentary polls as well as the current scenario emerging from an unofficial alliance between Trinamul and the Congress in some areas.

“The CPM’s strength lies in these areas (the Red belt). We got 11 of the 14 Lok Sabha seats in these six districts. We expect a good result in this belt again. But our party’s social disconnect is bothering us,’’ a CPM state secretariat member said.

Thirty-three municipalities in the six districts are spread across 22 Assembly seats. The Lok Sabha results showed the Opposition was ahead in 12 Assembly segments and marginally behind in three, throwing up the possibility of a dent in the Red citadel.

The going could get tough for the CPM in three of the six municipalities in Burdwan even though they are located in the Burdwan East parliamentary seat, which the CPM had won, a party leader said.

This could be demoralising for the party because the Burdwan lobby has for decades formed the core of the CPM hierarchy. “We have two prominent central committee members and one politburo member from Burdwan. Therefore, if Burdwan upsets us, it will affect our morale,’’ a CPM state committee member said.

Frequent clashes between the CPM and the Opposition in Burdwan’s Mangalkot, Katwa, Memari, Purbasthali, Monetswar and Nadanghat over the past 12 months have “unnerved our party to a certain extent’’, the leader added.

The party had begun losing base in Burdwan even before the Lok Sabha polls when it lost the Guskara municipality to Trinamul in June 2008. It lost the Kulti civic body too, but three months after the 2009 parliamentary polls.

“Trinamul is terrorising people in parts of Burdwan and Birbhum. It is true that Trinamul has made inroads into some belts of Burdwan. Still, we hope to win five of the six municipalities here,’’ the Burdwan district secretary of the CPM, Amal Haldar, said.

In Hooghly, bitter factionalism, with former party MPs Anil Basu and Rupchand Pal fighting each other, has cast a cloud on the Left’s electoral prospects, a district leader said.

The Lok Sabha results showed that the CPM was way behind Trinamul in Chandernagore, Chinsurah, Saptagram, Serampore, Chapdani and Uttarpara. The only saving grace for the CPM could be Arambag. Tarakeswar is set to witness a bitter battle.

“We will wipe out the CPM in all areas running along the Ganga,’’ said Trinamul leader and Serampore MP Kalyan Banerjee.

CPM Hooghly district secretariat member Sunil Sarkar said that at lower levels, there had been a mahajot (between Trinamul and the Congress). “It’s a tough fight for us.’’

In Birbhum, the Left faces a challenge as Suri, Rampurhat and Bolpur — the civic bodies going to the polls — are currently held by Trinamul and the Congress.

According to a district CPM leader, the adverse impact of the parliamentary polls was still hurting the party. Trinamul is “capturing village after village’’, he added.

In West Midnapore, the Assembly segments of Ghatal, Chandrakona and Kharagpur — covering the six municipal areas going to polls — had given leads to the Left in the Lok Sabha elections. The Left expects to do well in three municipalities but is wary of the outcomes in Ghatal, Ramjibanpur and Kharagpur municipalities.

Chandrakona has long been a Maoist stronghold. But with the rebels boycotting elections, the CPM had benefited in the Lok Sabha polls in West Midnapore. The same may happen in the municipal elections too, a CPM leader said.

The Congress lost the Purulia Lok Sabha but posted a big lead from the Purulia town Assembly segment. The same trend was seen in the Bankura Assembly segment of Bankura parliamentary seat.

Currently, three of the six municipalities going to the polls in the two districts are run by the Opposition despite the fact that all the three Lok Sabha seats here were won by the Left in 2009 and 2004.