Ranchi, Nov. 8: Jharkhand, a victim of a fragmented polity, braces up again for a multi-cornered contest in 81 seats, making the Assembly elections, slated to start from November 25, unpredictable.

The Congress, having struck a bilateral deal with Babulal Marandi’s Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (JVM), is pushing for a “stable” government, but it has left Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), a former ally, in the lurch.

The Congress, pulling all stops to capture power in the state, is up against political juggernaut, the BJP. The Congress has also tried to distance itself from the corrupt regime of Madhu Koda, facing a probe by central agencies.

The BJP had emerged as the single-largest party in the 2005 Assembly elections. The party topped up its performance by clinching eight of the 14 seats in the past Lok Sabha elections. Now, it is a do-or-die battle for the BJP as it tries to reverse recent nation-wide defeat in Jharkhand that has been a bastion. “A victory here (Jharkhand) would prove a lot for the BJP that is smarting after defeats in Maharashtra, Haryana and Arunachal Pradesh,” said a BJP insider.

“The BJP rode high on the anti-incumbency factor and won eight out of the 14 Lok Sabha seats some six months ago. I doubt it will repeat the same feat,” said Harishwar Dayal, who studied the past elections on behalf of the Delhi-based Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS). For JMM, it could prove to be the final battle for Shibu Soren, as he strives to prove that he is still a prominent figure in Jharkhand politics. Though JMM has no base in Palamau, the party has roped in several Left-wing rebel-turned-politicians to rake in votes.

Despite efforts, it is difficult to believe that the JMM will be able to retain its position in the Assembly. “LS polls made it clear that the JMM may not be able to survive merely playing on janata’s emotions. In Jharkhand, government’s performance has been unsatisfactory. Here the politics of performance should be effective rather than that of allegiances,” Dayal added.

“Against this backdrop, the fate of the Congress alliance with Babulal Marandi would be interesting to watch,” he said. Marandi is facing the first Assembly elections after parting ways with the BJP in 2006.

Lalu Prasad and Ram Vilas Paswan, too, are out to show their political relevance despite being cold-shouldered by the Congress. In the 2005 Assembly polls, the Congress had entered into an alliance with the JMM, leaving the RJD and Left in the lurch. The RJD had bagged seven seats in the last elections.

Pollsters say that Naxalite leaders will play a major role this poll, as previously they have been able to influence voting pattern in a large number of seats.

The JMM will field candidates in 81 seats, while the BJP and the JD(U) will be fighting for 67 and 14 seats, respectively. The Congress and JVM will contest 62 and 19 seats, respectively, and will be locked in a contest in five seats.