The monsoon has come and gone; with it have gone headlines about the worst drought since the beginnings of history. The dry months of June and July were followed by the wet months of August and September; as the heavens opened, prayers to the rain god ceased. Corporation officials ceased their emergency meetings about whether to cut water supply from two hours to one hour a day. The minister of food and civil supplies stopped counting the million tons he had in his warehouses; the minister of agriculture stopped dreaming of lucrative contracts to import foodgrains.

But it is not as if there was no drought. Throughout the peninsula, and in much of the Gangetic plain, early rains failed. Since there was no moisture in the soil, crops could not be planted. When the rains came eventually, late planting was possible for some crops. But in the case of water-intensive crops, the water deficit could not be made up. And in those areas where a kharif crop is followed immediately by a rabi crop, farmers had to choose between the two, and most chose rabi. Hence the drought will leave its mark on agricultural production. The total impact may be small. After all, half the production comes in winter; it is likely to be higher rather than lower. And in the water-surplus areas of the east and the north-east, droughts do not have much of an impact.

But there will be regions and crops which will suffer. Amongst the regions is the dry centre of the peninsula. In 2006, a quarter of the country’s suicides were of Maharashtrian farmers; they are the ones who will feel the pinch this year again. The woes of their neighbours in Andhra Pradesh were compounded by the terrible floods in Krishna this summer. One would have thought that the crops to be worst affected would be dry crops like jowar and bajri. Their output would be lower, but their area did not decline. The only dry crop whose area under cultivation shrank significantly is groundnuts. This is part of a longer trend. Ever since India opened up to imports of palm oil, domestic oilseeds have been declining; Saurashtra’s groundnut farmers have to turn to something else. Surprisingly, the other crop to suffer is rice. Grown in wet or irrigated areas, rice is virtually immune to drought. But the floods in southern rivers reduced the area under rice by 15 per cent. There will be a serious fall in the production of kharif rice. The government has stocks, but it always hoards them in bad years. Herein lies an opportunity for Bengal. There will be demand for rice, especially in the neighbouring states of Bihar and Orissa. The farmers in Bengal could make a penny this year. But to do so, they must produce more; and the West Bengal government must allow free trade in grains.