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RING OF UNREST

India’s security is not an election issue. Yet, it found its way into the electoral rhetoric through the prime minister’s address in Pehowa in Haryana when he pointed to the instability in Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Nepal and its likely impact on India. To his listeners, however, Manmohan Singh was preaching his party’s line on fighting terror without harassing any particular community. But for a nation facing a crisis on its western border and a tumultuous situation in the south, it is curious that the concerted efforts of both the government and the Opposition should be to keep the issue of security invisible on the electoral radar. This is perhaps because Mumbai has been tried as an election strategy in the assembly polls, and was found to backfire. And the government, now on a circuitous route to nailing the assassins, does not want the nation at its back.

Irrespective of the lopsided focus, however, there can be no denying the security threat for India from its neighbours. On its west, the Taliban are close to overrunning Islamabad, which is still unable to control the rapid progress of the militia. If the government in Pakistan falls, India will be more susceptible to terror attacks than ever before, and perhaps even to invasion. In the south, an unresolved crisis over the Sinhala-Tamil issue will breed permanent instability in India’s southernmost state, which has already witnessed much violence around the issue. The repercussions of a spoilt relationship with Nepal increase manifold the Maoist menace in India. And, although Mr Singh did not mention Bangladesh, there is every possibility that the restive pro-Islamist lobby, which has allowed the country to become a safe haven for those indulging in anti-Indian activities, can once again grab centre stage.

There is no one solution to India’s problems. India will, of course, need to keep its head and handle each of its neighbours differently. The one problem that skews India’s relations with its neighbours is their perceiving India as a regional bully. India may have provoked such a perception by forcing its hand in many instances. But more often than not, power-seekers in these nations, and distant power-players like China, have spoilt the broth. China has helped Pakistan achieve nuclear parity with India. It now largely sponsors Sri Lanka’s war against the Tigers, undertakes development work in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, and is bent on seizing the regional role from India. The United States of America, with China as its largest external creditor, has been checkmated suitably. Perhaps India needs to rely entirely on the strength of its democracy to see itself through this bad patch and send the right signals to its neighbours, each of whom is struggling to keep an effective democracy in place.

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