Mumbai, Jan. 1: Weary investors who saw their share value halving in 2008 had reasons to cheer on the first day of 2009. Falling inflation and the hope of another stimulus package pushed the BSE sensex up by 256 points to 9903.46.

However, market observers say today’s close must not be taken as a sign of things to come.

Other than intermittent rallies, stocks can be under pressure in the first half of this year because of worries over company earnings, they said.

However, there is some optimism, too. Analysts feel falling inflation can prevent the sensex from testing again 2008’s intra-day low of 7697.39 struck in October.

“The steep fall in commodity prices is a positive. In the future, there should be availability of easy and affordable credit which should perk up demand. The sensex could be around 16000 by the end of this year,’’ said Ashok Jainani of Khandwala Securities.

Shares today staged a strong rally across the board. The sensex opened at 9720.55 and hit an intra-day high of 9921.70 on news of inflation dipping to 6.38 per cent. It settled at 9903.46, a rise of 256.15 points, or 2.66 per cent, over its previous close of 9647.31. Markets elsewhere were closed today.

Investors even overlooked the fall in India’s exports, which declined 9.9 per cent in November.

The broader 50-share Nifty of the National Stock Exchange gained 74.30 points, or 2.51 per cent, to breach the 3000 level and close at 3033.45.

The rupee, however, ended seven paise lower against the dollar at 48.78.

Realty stocks were the day’s biggest gainer, with the BSE realty index shooting up 148.30 points, or 6.52 per cent, to 2422.43.