Iffy Markets

After the roller-coaster ride in 2008 when the Sensex tumbled over 50 per cent, only contrarians and bravehearts will wander into this market.

The big question: where will the Sensex head in 2009? The pundits — a very loose confederacy of top-notch investors, brokerages and crystal-ball gazers — reckon that the worst is over for Indian markets. But no one really wants to be pinned down to a number following the precipitate fall in stocks and indices and the tremendous volatility in the markets after the developed economies slid into a recession, oil plunged from a high of over $140 to a barrel to about $43 now. Some reckon oil could tumble to $25 a barrel if demand dries up as world economies stumble.

Many aver that the bounce-back will happen towards the end of 2009 (after we learn more about the extent of the recession in the West and the contours of the new alliance that will form the government in Delhi after the elections, likely in April-May).

One-time bulls like Rakesh Jhunjhunwala believe that this market hasn’t seen anything yet and the mother of bull runs has still to come. After the Sensex fell from a high of 21,206.77 points to 10,099.91 points on December 19 — a fall of over 50 per cent — retail investors aren’t ready to buy the forecast just yet. Our hunch: well over 13,000 by October, with a strong upside if Barack Obama and the Federal Reserve can work out a package to rescue the US economy.

Economy: Heading into 2009, governments and forecasters are chewing on their toenails to come up with a set of credible projections. The focus is on the US which stuttered in the third quarter of 2008 (July to September) with a small 0.1 per cent contraction. Surveys predict that the fourth quarter could see a decline of around 2.5 per cent. Obama takes charge in January, and the focus of attention will be on the economic package that he can cobble.

The IMF believes that 2009 will be a “very difficult year” for the world’s economies with the possibility of a recovery only by early 2010. Recently, the IMF came up with a dire forecast for 2009: it said advanced economies would contract for the first time since World War II even as it called for a solid pump-priming exercise by governments to battle the financial crisis. It has lowered its global growth forecast by 0.8 points to 2.2 per cent.

After four years of over 9 per cent growth, India is projected to close the year ended March 31, 2009, with a growth rate of anywhere between 7.5 per cent and 8 per cent. However, the Reserve Bank of India has indicated it may revisit that forecast when it reviews monetary policy in January. Most expect it to trim the forecast to 7 per cent. Several Cassandras — especially foreign investment institutions — are projecting a growth of 6.4 per cent in fiscal 2009 and 5.8 per cent in 2010. Those are dire figures for an economy that has recorded the second-fastest growth among major economies around the world.

Saumitra Dasgupta

Bolly blitz in US

The year 2009 is when Hollywood should really feel threatened about Bollywood.

Despite NRI movie king Karan Johar’s best efforts, the US box office has never warmed up to Bollywood, though a Kabhi Khushi Kabhie Gham did terrific business in America. While almost every week some Bollywood film emerges in the British Top 10, Hindi movies have had no such luck at the US box office.

Come 2009, the scene is sure to change. For two things, primarily. First, the Slumdog Millionaire effect. Just like Pather Panchali had opened up Indian cinema to the West and Salaam Bombay reinstated the poverty scene a couple of decades ago, Danny Boyle has rustled up fresh interest in Bollywood.

With A.R. Rahman helming the music and standing a shot at the Oscars, and Anil Kapoor in the cast, Indian cinema has been the toast of America, not just with the awards but with super success at the turnstiles. Despite a limited release, Slumdog has been climbing up US charts week on week.

Then the whole distribution set-up in the US has got stronger with the likes of UTV, Yash Raj Films and Eros International. A Rab Ne Bana Di Jodi today can release at 82 theatres in the US and start at number 15 in the charts.

“Yes, the US box office collections have been huge and it will definitely be an important market in the coming months,” said a Yash Raj Films spokesperson.

And you have Hollywood physically taking part in a Bollywood movie, with Arnold Schwarzenegger, Sylvester Stallone, Beyonce Knowles, Denise Richards and Brandon Routh featuring in Akshay-Kareena-starrer Kambakkht Ishq.

Let’s also not forget that Johar has a release next year in the Shah Rukh-Kajol-starrer My Name is Khan.

Pratim D. Gupta

‘Clean’ TV

Under-18s are in for a disappointment. Early in 2009, the government is expected to classify all TV programmes — of every channel, foreign or Indian — into general and restricted categories. Channels can air the restricted programmes only from 9.30pm to 6am, making them available only on conditional-access basis through parental consent or through a pin-code (parental lock). Its success depends on the parents keeping the code a secret, of course.

The restricted list is likely to contain programmes showing a little skin or sexual acts, or portraying adultery or promiscuity, or containing sexual innuendoes — content that the channels have been asked to minimise anyway through a self-regulatory code.

The curbs will come on a Supreme Court directive for the “return of decency” to TV. The Centre is also likely to place curbs on TV channels covering terror — no gory scenes, bloodied bodies, endless replays or conversations with terrorists.

Cithara Paul

Cheap ride

Next time your scooter needs fuel, you may be looking for a power socket at home. More people will be riding the electric scooter next year, especially as the economic meltdown takes effect. Plug in the charger kit for six hours at night and you’re ready to go up to 90km the green way.

Priced at Rs 27,000-36,000 depending on the model, e-scooters are up to 25 per cent cheaper than petrol scooters. The running cost is 5-8 paise a km against Rs 20 a km for petrol scooters. The battery, which must be replaced every two years, costs Rs 4,000-7,000. “That’s Rs 300 a month against Rs 800-1,000 a month for petrol scooters, which also require frequent servicing, oil change, etc,” an industry source said.

E-scooters below a top speed of 25kmph do not require a driving licence. Ideal for housewives for short trips to the local market or for dropping kids at schools. Buy a high-powered model if two adults are to travel with heavy loads.

G.C. Shekhar

Eat all you want

That day is near when you can unwrap a pack of biscuits and eat them all — the biscuits and the package. US scientist Jung Han has mixed beeswax with starch to make an edible material that can be flattened into a water-resistant film similar to plastic. Plastic packaging could be on its way out if this catches on. Also, scientists at Tufts University, the US, have made possible an edible membrane of silk that can be placed in bags of vegetables to tell you if the goods are contaminated. It can then be eaten with the veggies. So one day, you can perhaps eat your silk hat too.

Open minds

So you find black holes and parallel universes fascinating, yet can’t resist the attraction of modern literature or world affairs?

After Plus II, Indian students may not find themselves on career crossroads any more if a proposal from three science academies — flexibility in undergraduate programmes — is expanded to cover the arts as well. Students can then study virtually any subject combination they want for BSc — physics with zoology, geology with history or literature.

Such an opportunity is important in an era when advanced research increasingly demands knowledge from multiple disciplines. But flexibility will also serve another purpose. “It will allow Class XII students more time to decide what they really want to do,” said a second-year engineering student, who had initially wanted to pursue medicine but could not make it to medical school.

Banaras Hindu University will be among the first Indian varsities to begin implementing this. If more universities follow suit, 2009 will see a new dawn on Indian campuses — aptly in the 150th anniversary of Jagadish Chandra Bose, a physicist, plant physiologist and geneticist.

“For too long have we been unnecessarily thinking that the university education pattern has to be uniform across the country,” said Milind Watve, head of microbiology at Apasaheb Garware College, Pune. “We should let different models come up; the superior ones will survive, the bad ones will collapse.”

G.S. Mudur

School rights

Next year, families with children aged 6-14 may be able to haul the government to court for not providing schooling, if the right to education bill is passed in the next couple of Parliament sessions. School admission tests, capitation fees and “donations” could go; and a quarter of seats must be reserved for poor children. The Centre is also likely to launch a scheme to universalise secondary education.

Also, all colleges, universities, hospitals and libraries could be connected online so that, for instance, a doctor can quickly scan pages of a library book from his department room.

Charu Sudan Kasturi

Water from air

The $1,500 WaterMill, to become increasingly cheaper, will turn air to water in kitchens. Now it is quenching US soldiers’ thirst in Iraq but with a pullout deadline announced, companies are looking to enter homes. It uses the same amount of power as three light bulbs and, depending on the humidity, can churn out 12-30 litres of water a day without toxic byproducts.

The 20x3ft plastic gadget will be especially useful while travelling. It works as long as humidity levels are 14 per cent or more. Could find buyers in water-scarce places like Gurgaon, Noida and Ghaziabad.

Samyabrata Ray Goswami

TRENDS

Many expensive drugs’ patents expire in 2009 (and in 2010), making these medicines cheaper. Generic-drug makers are likely to cash in on this, lowering some prices by up to 80 per cent

Retailers may show a fine nose for business and fill stores with enticing aromas, making shoppers defencelessly nostalgic, to sell them anything from shoes to food

Established brands from China, India, Brazil and Russia may foray into the developed world, which is hit harder by recession

A year older and wiser

• Happiness can spread from person to person. A smile to your friend can lift the mood of your friends’ friends’ friends
• People feel happier when they spend money on others rather than themselves
• Girls become as good at math as boys if not discriminated against
• Time spent outdoors protects children from needing specs
• No significant genetic variation between Indians of different castes and religious or ethnic groups. We all have mixed genes
• Even religious people are good only when others are looking, so your own conscience is what counts

Tech Titbits

A femtocell

The iPhone came and went — without raising too many trills in India. The launch of Apple’s iconic device must rank as one of the most crashing disappointments. But 2009 will focus more on technology than gizmos. To start with, there will be the auction of third generation, or 3G, spectrum in mid-January. The 3G promises to take mobile use to a different level: rapid data downloads and video-streaming mean mobile users can look forward to an exciting experience.

Most 3G players will be ready to offer their services only in the middle of the year. The cost of the service will depend on how aggressively telecom companies bid for the scarce spectrum — and this could be downer, at least initially. Remember when 2G services began in 1993, the cost of outgoing calls was Rs 18 a minute because of the insane bids made. It wasn’t until the government and the telecom players switched to a revenue-sharing structure in 1999 that customers started to see a decline in mobile phone rates.

Keep your eyes peeled for any development on femtocells — the telecom technology that is just starting to gain traction. Last week, Huawei Technologies announced the world’s first commercially available 3G femtocell service in association with StarHub of Singapore.

Okay, so what are femtocells? These are small access points, or nodes, that enhance coverage and capacity, especially indoors. Most of us have had the frustrating experience of call drops in offices and highrise homes. The femtocell is the solution: it connects to the service provider’s network via broadband (such as DSL or cable) and typically supports two to five mobile phones in a residential setting.

Where Huawei has scored over the others is that its femtocell solution will enable end-users to enjoy high-speed wireless data services indoors such as streaming video, IPTV, video-conferencing and mobile broadband. For all those who expect the 3G service to crawl in an Indian setting, the femtocell offers a cheap solution.

Priorities and Reminders

Rarely does a passing year bequeath its successor tasks as cleanly cut out as 2008 is doing to 2009.

As if terror’s disquieting and unrelieved roller-coaster was not enough to mark it out as particularly jinxed, there was the abrupt plunge in the economy.

Whatever the colour or combination of parties that come to power next year, they’ll be held to addressing the same broad agenda — reclaim shaken public confidence in government over security and the state of the economy.

By the time the next government takes over in mid-2009, the nation will be nearing 62, time for those who were born with Independence to retire. The working lifetime of an Indian has passed and the most elementary things remain to be done. We gave ourselves a Constitution brimming with the most evolved ideas of mankind — unexceptionable equality and liberty, universal adult suffrage, a commitment to all manner of justice, a manifesto of high common purpose.

It was — and still is — a document that distils the best ideas about how a society should order and govern itself. Find a problem and you will find a resolution in the Indian Constitution, it is such a talisman text. But we did with it what we mostly do with our Gods — we put it on a pedestal. We swore by it, we seldom lived by it.

Millions among our billion-plus still do not have access to drinking water. More millions have no power. Primary education and basic healthcare are luxuries for the have-nots, and handy election slogans for the haves. They still win elections and form governments on the promise of providing clean water. Can there be poorer light on 62 years of Independence? But why unleash this groaning now? Why stain the festive season? Because nothing has been done about it.

It bears repetition because those who refuse to see or listen must begin to see and listen. It bears repetition because it needs to be fore-grounded in the government’s agenda.

We spend less on education and healthcare than some of the feeblest economies of Africa and Asia. Ignorance is the other monster that roams unleashed. Millions still do not know the privileges they’ve bought into with their vote. For nearly 20 years, the entire collective of Kashmiri Pandits has lived like refugees in its own country and it bothers nobody. That is our reality.

Forty-three per cent of this country’s physical territory is domineered by an ideology that seeks to overthrow our adopted system. Naxalites are not an import from somewhere; they are home-grown, nurtured on discontent. That is our reality.

More than a hundred thousand farmers have committed suicide. That too is our reality. The new government would do well to awaken from superpower stupor and countenance all of these.

Sankarshan Thakur