The results of the recent four state elections have been a revelation. The Indian electorate does not appear as fond of the anti-incumbency vote anymore as it has been in the past. It seems to be rewarding development-oriented and sincere leaders and governments. Only that can explain the victories of the Congress in Delhi and of the Bharatiya Janata Party in Madhya Pradesh and in Chhattisgarh. It does not explain Vasundhara Raje’s defeat despite her good work. But earlier governments under Bhairon Singh Shekhawat and Ashok Gehlot had, according to most parameters, also done good work, and been defeated. Perhaps Rajasthan’s electorate knows that change will only bring in another good government whereas in the other states, the record of predecessors was so poor that throwing out the incumbent would risk the gains from development.

What do these election results signify for the general elections? The diligence of the politically wounded Prakash Karat after he lost the battle over the nuclear deal may see Mayavati installed as prime minister by the middle of next year. He had announced that Mayavati would lead the new third front. Now he has persuaded J. Jayalalithaa to join it.

Jayalalithaa’s natural inclination might be towards the BJP. Her calculations in joining the third front, where she will play second fiddle to Mayavati with other members of parliament from Uttar Pradesh, are unclear. It could be a feint to see which between the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance and the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance will offer her the best deal before or even after the elections. She might be positioning herself to take over as prime minister after Mayavati fails, as the latter will fail in running a credible and effective government. In Tamil Nadu she does not need the third front to win against the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam led by an ailing M. Karunanidhi, his squabbling sons and his government’s poor record of governance this time. She will be the victor in Tamil Nadu unless the actor, Rajnikanth, enters politics and eats into her votes. His entry at this time appears increasingly unlikely.

Other members of this third front at present are the Telengana Rashtriya Samiti and the Telugu Desam Party. There might be later minor additions like H.D. Deve Gowda’s Janata Dal (Secular). The first wants a Telengana state and Mayavati will concede. She might set up a new states reorganization commission to split UP, Maharashtra and even Karnataka.

Mayavati might win 50 out of UP’s 80 seats and (at best) five from other states, since the Bahujan Samaj Party is to fight for all seats nationally. Jayalalithaa might win at least 25, the communists 30 in West Bengal and Kerala (against the present 60) and the other parties 10. The third front might have over 100 seats in all. If, as seems likely, the UPA and the NDA are tied, the third front could bargain and install Mayavati as prime minister. Support would come from the Congress-led UPA.

A coalition that has Jayalalithaa and an equally intemperate and flamboyant leader in Mayavati will ensure that such a government does not last more than 18 to 24 months.

Mayavati is known as someone who takes her own decisions, is usually not open to advice, especially when it contradicts her strong impulses, and who is extravagant with government resources, especially on grandiose projects. She is not too concerned with development, looking for short-term solutions, and is not accustomed to planning and implementing complex projects for the future. She is often imperious, arrogant, abusive and greedy for wealth. Yet, her regime is believed to have a better record than the Samajwadi Party’s on law and order. On foreign policy and international affairs, strategic matters to do with security, trade, investment, and so on, she has given no evidence of having either knowledge or interest, despite her many years in politics.

She will be beholden to the communists for getting the prime minister’s position, and will have to follow their diktat. Almost certainly she will be pressed to distance herself from the United States of America and Israel, junk the Indo-US nuclear deal — at least by not awarding orders to American firms, to stop the military intelligence-gathering and other types of closeness fostered by the NDA and the UPA governments with the US and Israel, and to stop cooperation with both. This will please the Muslim voters, with Muslim leaders from many walks of life (even a film person like Soni Razdan) wanting the distancing of India from the US and Israel.

Reforms that have been passed by the UPA, such as the raising of foreign investment limits in insurance, pension reform, raising foreign investment limits in areas like telecommunications, more foreign bank entries and branches and so on, will be suspended. New measures to get special economic zones moving, labour law reform, privatization or the reducing of government holdings in public enterprises, reducing or abolishing subsidies and/or targeting them better, power sector reforms, especially in distribution, opening retail trade to large firms, are among the things that will not happen in her regime. Deficit control will be given the go-by as she embarks on a lavish spending spree.

On the populist and political front, we can expect Mayavati and her coalition to increase reservations, press meritocratic institutions like Indian institutes of management and of technology to admit and recruit less qualified candidates and faculty, impose reservations on the private sector, and perhaps reintroduce product reservations for small-scale industries.

Police reform will take a backseat with the police remaining an instrument of politicians and not of the State. Intelligence-gathering will revert into a mechanism for political spying as it was in the time of Indira Gandhi. On terror, we can expect a very light-handed approach to terrorists and Pakistan. Foreign policy will be far more pro-Arab and more hostile to the West. The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh and its related organizations will be banned, and the Students Islamic Movement of India and its subsidiaries will be allowed free functioning. There will be a strong attempt to control the judiciary. Confrontations with, and even a refusal to honour orders of, the courts, including the Supreme Court, can be expected. Transfers of non-cooperating officers in the Central services will become frequent.

All this will lead to economic decline as growth in services and industry declines, infrastructure and social sector spending increases, but with little result; deficit on current account in the balance of payments account will rise, the rupee will keep falling, with rapid outflows of foreign exchange and a sharp fall in inflows as Indian and foreign investors lose confidence; investment will fall, and the gross domestic product growth will drop to below five per cent.

At the same time, the attempt to build capacity in India will slow down and the need to enhance skills, training and quality education will be forgotten. This will further hamper India’s progress. We can expect unrest, especially in urban India among the educated young, students and the higher castes, to rise. Lower castes and classes will also notice the decline in opportunities as the economy slows and education does not add to their skills.

How far this dismal scenario progresses will depend on the extent to which the Congress and allies giving outside support, and Jayalalithaa as part of the coalition, are willing to allow the communists to redo India according to their vision, with Mayavati cooperating for her personal glorification, her need for power and for wooing special interest groups and voting blocks.

Such a coalition will last at most for two years unless the friendly parties withdraw support earlier. But the period of its power will cause India lasting damage. Ideological hardliners like Prakash Karat might at the end be disowned even by their own party, but the damage would have been done.