ONE FOR THE FAMILY ALBUM, MINUS AN ABDULLAH: Omar Abdullah prays with his wife and sons at the grave of his grandfather Sheikh Abdullah in Hazratbal on Sunday. (Reuters)

Srinagar, Dec. 28: The National Conference (NC) has staged a remarkable rally to emerge the lead contender for power but the bitter fracture of the mandate means that Delhi will once again decide who wears the Kashmir crown.

The NC’s chief rival, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), registered a striking surge but was blunted by a rout in Srinagar, which voted last. The NC swept all eight city seats in a relatively low poll, and that may have made the difference between the two rivals.

The PDP upped its tally by five to wrest 21 seats, expanding in the Valley’s rural areas and opening its Jammu account with two, but the NC held the lead, retaining its 2002 tally of 28.

The other big story of these elections came from Jammu, where the BJP rode inflamed Amarnath sentiment to grab 11 seats, its highest ever in the state. Most of the BJP’s gains, however, came at the expense of Independents and smaller parties. The Congress held its own against the BJP’s rush and secured 17 seats, which will enable it to play kingmaker.

Buoyed by numbers and his own victory in Ganderbal, NC president Omar Abdullah declared he would stake claim to power and invited the Congress to form a coalition; part of his overture, following the announcement of results, was a phone conversation with Congress general secretary Rahul Gandhi.

They are “close friends, politically and personally, and we make natural allies”, the younger Abdullah said.

Both the Abdullahs, though, are being circumspect about alliance formation, Omar even telling journalists that the Congress could still think of renewing ties with the PDP. “For me, an NC-Congress alliance is the message of the mandate, but it is really up to the Congress to decide whether they want to repeat the mistake of going with the separatist PDP,” Omar said, surrounded by a throng of excited partymen at his Gupkar Road residence.

A mile up that road, disappointment descended on Fairview, the residence of the Muftis, who are staring at the prospect of sitting in the Opposition even though they have made greater gains than the NC. But the PDP hasn’t given up hope of being squared out of the power equation.

Party sources indicated that the PDP was banking on the Congress deciding in the “larger national interest” to co-opt the single-largest Valley party into power. “The Congress is not unaware that if the PDP is out of power, separatist sentiment will feel outmanoeuvred and will flare up again,” a victorious PDP candidate from South Kashmir said.

The PDP patron, Mufti Mohammed Sayeed, remained elusive all day; his daughter and PDP president, Mehbooba Mufti, would reveal nothing of how her party would proceed with this mandate.

Ducking questions on whether the PDP was in touch with the Congress, Mehbooba only said: “The people have given us a huge job to do, we have to see to it that we work for the promises we made, that will be our main task.” Her colleagues, though, refused to shut the door on the possibility of an alliance with the Congress.

It is known that former chief minister, Ghulam Nabi Azad, stands opposed to any deal with the PDP, but there is a section in the party that has been advising Congress chief Sonia Gandhi that it would be “dangerous and counterproductive” to national interest to sideline the PDP, especially now that the party has improved its position in the Assembly and become the single-largest party of the Valley.

“To go with the PDP would serve national interest better because if it is not part of the power structure, it may create trouble,” said a Congress leader. He added, though, that he had no notion of which way his party would sway.

But arithmetic may eventually triumph over political considerations — the numbers in the new Assembly may eventually leave the Congress no choice but to go with the NC.

The two parties together make a simple majority, with no need of others; should the Congress want to make a political choice based on larger considerations of co-opting separatist sentiment and explore possibilities with the PDP, more than half a dozen Independents will have to be won over, a tough ask given that only 10 have won.