Bhopal, Nov. 16: Two firebrand women outside the BJP and the Congress, the main Madhya Pradesh rivals, could shape the state’s political destiny in this month’s polls.

The Congress is banking on Uma Bharti to cause as much damage to the ruling BJP as possible, while the saffron party hopes Mayavati will cut into the votes of the Congress.

Congress leaders are in touch with Uma and her nephew Sidharth to chalk out strategies in 50-odd seats where the two sides are confident of checkmating the BJP with their tacit understanding. A Congress general secretary is said to have told colleagues that if Bhartiya Jan Shakti (BJS) gets 25 or more BJP candidates defeated, the Congress will have a chance to form the government.

The BJP, on the other hand, expects Mayavati to spoil the Congress’s chances. Her Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is keen to repeat the success of its “social engineering” strategy — involving a rainbow combination of the weaker sections with upper castes that catapulted Mayavati to power last year — in other states, including Madhya Pradesh.

The BSP has fielded candidates in all 230 seats, with a plan to ally one dominant caste group of an area with Dalits. The caste arithmetic is such that in most areas, the BSP is hurting the Congress and helping the BJP. Officially, the BSP and the BJS deny any covert agreement.

Uma, herself a contestant from Tikamgarh, is eyeing OBC votes, mostly that of her Lodhi caste which had backed the BJP in the 2003 polls. The Congress believes her candidature will swing results in the Bundelkhand region.

Mayavati will kick off her campaign from Khandwa on November 18, with plans to cover 10 districts in all key regions of Madhya Pradesh. A recce is already under way: over a dozen BSP MLAs from Uttar Pradesh, led by Jaunpur strongman Dhananjay Singh, are making the rounds of nine constituencies in Indore, Dhar, Ratlam and other areas to gauge the voters’ mood.

BSP insiders said Mayavati’s focus is on the Rewanchal region, which borders Uttar Pradesh’s Mirzapur and Allahabad districts and elects 28 MLAs. A traditional Congress stronghold, the area has seen many influential local leaders cross over to the BSP this time.

The region is also home to Churhat in Sidhi district, where Union HRD minister Arjun Singh’s son Ajay is in the fray. He is said to be on a sticky wicket because of the BSP’s strong presence in the region. Efforts are on to bring Arjun to campaign but the minister hasn’t been well.

Mayavati believes Madhya Pradesh is a key milestone on her way to Delhi.

A good performance in the state will strengthen her position in the general elections next year and raise her standing as a national leader.