Where there is a will, there is a war. This is the message that the Russian president, Dmitri Medvedev, seemed to convey to the West as he signed a decree recognizing the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. While Mr Medvedev basks in the glory of his audacity, this gesture is not going to make the residents of these regions any happier. It makes little sense to celebrate a sovereignty that has been conferred in violation of the United Nations security council resolutions. Mr Medvedev prefers to operate like a sorcerer rather than a diplomat: what good are international laws anyway when he can simply will two nation-states into existence? It would have been fun to partake of this spirit of make-believe had there not been serious diplomatic breaches at stake. Other than its illegality, Mr Medvedev’s action makes him answerable for Russia’s response to separatism in the past. If the Ossetians deserve independent statehood, then dozens of separatist causes in the north of the Caucasus could equally come up with such demands. Russia would then have to rethink its earlier reaction to the crisis in Chechnya.

Mr Medvedev has thus set a precedent that is not only going to prove dangerous for the stability of the Russian Federation but also open yet another deadly can of worms. Ever since the end of the Cold War, Russia’s relationship with the West has been testy at best, and turbulent in the worst of times. Russia’s strike on Georgia has now given the United States of America and the European Union a perfect lever to influence foreign policy in the Caucasus. Ukraine, like Georgia, is aspiring to a Nato membership, with Moldova and Crimea also slipping out of their Soviet pasts. As Russian troops continue to impede US aid to Georgia in the port of Poti, the Black Sea is becoming heavily militarized. But Russia cares little for the loss in petro-dollars and even less for the West’s ire. The brave Mr Medvedev has welcomed “a new cold war”. Only this time it may not remain as cold.