Manmohan

New Delhi, July 29: The Congress is clear that Manmohan Singh will be projected as one of its “brightest” stars in the next Lok Sabha elections, but it is unsure whether he will contest.

The decision will depend primarily on the outcome of several state elections due in November.

“Whether we like it or not, the results will be seen as a referendum on the Centre’s performance and the Indo-US nuclear deal, though finally local issues, caste equations and the extent to which the BSP eats into our votes will be the main determinants,” a source said.

By then, the party also expects to have a fair idea of how the BJP’s theme of India being a “soft target” for terrorists will play out and whether the Opposition party can regain credibility for its “nationalist” plank that had eroded after the Kandahar hijack and the attack on Parliament.

Although Ahmedabad, Bangalore and Jaipur — the targets of the recent serial blasts — are all in BJP-ruled states, the Opposition party does not expect its image to be hit by the attacks. It has instead been blaming the Centre, accusing it of failing to clear tough anti-terror laws.

In turning the spotlight on the nuclear deal, the Congress has assumed that the issue is a “hit” with the urban upper classes.

The party says it has appealed to an innate anti-Left feeling among them and makes a “superhero” out of Manmohan for standing up to Prakash Karat, restoring the character of his pro-reforms politics and holding up the expectation of a seat for India among the world’s superpowers.

When the party decided to part ways with the Left, it believed the deal could wean away the upper classes of towns and cities from the BJP if Manmohan morphed into a symbol of the “great Indian dream”.

Barring occasional successes in Delhi and Mumbai, the Congress lost the goodwill and support of the urban opinion-makers after 1989. Rajiv Gandhi rode the crest of the sympathy wave for his mother in 1984 and fell as sharply over Bofors. After he dithered on the Ram temple — he tried to please Hindus and Muslims and ended up alienating both — the Congress lost the urban upper classes almost irrevocably to the BJP.

Even economic reforms, piloted by P.V. Narasimha Rao and Manmohan, could not bring them back because Rao ended his innings enmeshed in corruption charges and with low approval ratings.

Now, before it decides to put Manmohan on the main stage, the Congress will consider if his impact could get diluted if he does not contest, the sources said.

It is “against the party’s tradition” to declare a prime ministerial candidate, the sources said. But after the trust vote win and the perception of Manmohan emerging “stronger and firmer”, a section feels the party should be up front about projecting its nominee.

This section believes Manmohan’s failure to win the only Lok Sabha election he has ever fought — he contested from South Delhi in 1999 and lost to V.K. Malhotra of the BJP — is “history” and shouldn’t deter the Congress from fielding him again.

To enlarge the deal’s appeal, the campaign will draw on Rahul Gandhi’s speech in Parliament and link energy security with poverty and its now-famous face, Kalawati, a Vidarbha farmer’s widow.

Whether or not he contests the election, Manmohan will no longer limit himself to hall meetings for dedicated audiences from industry and academics. “To hardsell the deal, he will speak more and more at public rallies in cities and towns across the country,” the source said.

In 2004, Manmohan had campaigned sparingly and most Congress workers had no idea that he would be the Prime Minister if the party won the election.

But Manmohan is not expected to make a pitch only for the deal. Sources said he would be as expansive on his government’s achievements in the social sector.