On May Day this year, the focus here will be on the democratic exercise, as UK voters elect their local councils and Londoners have their chance to elect or re-elect their mayor. The outcome of these elections, especially of the high-profile London contest, are vitally important to Labour and Conservative Parties and, to a lesser extent, given their ability to be delighted with small pickings, to the Liberal Democrats.

Ken Livingstone, our two-term sitting mayor, has held and spun the press like a top for the many years of his London mythology — and not always to his advantage, as the gilt has gradually worn off the gingerbread. To get an informed view of Livingstone and his main challenger, Conservative Boris Johnson, and of their chances and aspirations in the real world, I decided to go straight to the horse’s mouth in the form of Steven Norris, former Conservative minister of state for transport and Conservative mayoral contender in both 2000 and 2004. Norris describes himself as quite right-wing but is seen in Conservative circles to be on the left of the party for his belief in social justice. A potential candidate for 2008 too, Norris counted himself out in favour of Johnson. He says that his continuing fascination for and considerable involvement in national politics is too far outweighed by his age and personal circumstances that require him to use his equally high-level business skills to make more money than has ever been possible in the political arena in this country. A clear eye for opportunity has encouraged his growing interest in south Asia and ambitions for future tie-ups with Indian business operations in line with his strong belief that the “East is where it’s at”.

Norris believes that the future of politics lies in a managerial approach to providing the needs of the citizen as consumer, not in the busted ideologies of those who would once have changed the world. The magic words of extreme transformation created a transitory change based on a seductive fairytale with a cruel sting in the tail. The great debates have been had and successful politics is increasingly de-politicized. We are left with the need for good managers providing security, delivery of services, value for money and the good life. In spite of the banners of democracy waved indiscriminately over those that don’t have it, those who will and those that won’t when it comes with threats in someone else’s image; we may now be less interested in visions of democracy than in what can be done for us. Extremism only gets a foot in the door if we can be reluctantly persuaded that this is the only way to get what we need. It seems that we are on a very long fuse these days. ‘Red’ Ken, and the red epithet is looking pretty threadbare, is still on an ideology kick whether out of habit or for want of a better approach. Voters are not seduced. As Norris says, we have heard the anti-homophobia, the anti-racism, all the equality speeches and stories before. With depressing exceptions, we believe that we are no longer racist, homophobic or guilty of sexual discrimination, or would not demonstrate it even if we were. Of course, reality does not live up to our perceptions, but Ken Livingstone’s message is seen as old hat in the face of cross-class and -culture desire for effective policing, security, good public transport and housing, greater support for small and medium enterprises, and better skills training. On top of this, Londoners are looking for a new vision for London that will make the city the people magnet that befits its status as the largest in Europe and will capitalize on the development invested in the 2012 Olympic Games.

Livingstone’s record has not been bad. He sailed into the mayoralty on the back of Labour popularity, albeit as an independent candidate against the official Labour nominee, and a rose-tinted view of the extinct Greater London Council under his left-leaning, high-spending leadership. Seen as some sort of hero of the people with an admonitory finger in every domestic and international pie of injustice, including the divisions in Northern Ireland, he continued to live up to his image as champion of minorities. His first term, especially when his brave introduction of the highly unpopular “congestion charging” in central London was seen to have good effects on traffic flow, was deemed a success. Here was a mayor who would put his head on the block for good reasons and one worthy of a second term. Winning the 2012 Olympics was the pinnacle of Livingstone’s achievements but he has increasingly fallen foul of his own personality and his own poor judgment. He is seen now as the rude and abrasive leader of a corrupt and conceivably criminal coterie at the top of an inefficient administration. The early effects of congestion charging have been dissipated as the rich-and-growing-richer dismiss even a charge of £8 a day as small change and a scheme that cost millions to implement now penalizes the poorest while traffic levels have risen beyond pre-charging levels.

We moved on to Conservative candidate, Boris Johnson. Well-known as editor of the Spectator magazine; son-in-law of Sir Charles Wheeler, the respected BBC correspondent and journalist; born from a complicated and not particularly English ancestry; educated at Eton and Oxford; of broad and nimble mind and an extreme sense of the ridiculous; Boris, like Ken Livingstone, is commonly known by his first name and seen erroneously as the archetypal Englishman. His well-known ability to put his foot in it has caused him the odd difficult public moment, although he has seldom appeared personally dented for long. Norris is a great fan. He sees Boris as a winner who recognizes his own shortcomings. He will gather a good team of competent professionals around him if elected and well understands both the impossibility and the danger of doing everything yourself. Boris may fit the role of maverick as mayor but he is connected, committed and very much part of the David Cameron Conservative breath of fresh air and shares Cameron’s understanding of the need to support any success by clawing back a government’s reputation for competence.

Norris’s admiration for Cameron feeds a conviction that victory for Boris in London and potential Conservative victories in councils round the country presage a Conservative general election triumph in due course. A Conservative win will rightly be laid as much at the door of the Labour government, with particular responsibility to Gordon Brown’s charmless and vacillating leadership, as to the credit of the opposition. The Blair leadership’s inability to loosen its hold on all aspects of government set the scene for many of Brown’s current difficulties. This prime minister has neither the fleetness of foot nor the charisma to outface his opponents and manipulate public opinion as his predecessor continued to do in sun and storm. In the election for London mayor, voters by and large will vote by party as they will in the rest of the country.

Boris shares ambitions for London with Norris that go beyond the 2012 Olympic barrier and is determined to capitalize on that moment in the spotlight. Transport and other services remain major issues, but security at micro and macro levels is paramount for a thriving city. Norris does not have a good word to say for the current leadership or processes of the Metropolitan Police.

A win for Boris could be the fillip London needs; his campaign website (www.backboris.com) doesn’t miss a trick. A powerful intellect, an ability to gather skills around him and delegate responsibility plus an irresistible ease of manner that surmounts the somewhat disastrous buffoon image, would certainly be an attractive change in the London mayor and an important victory for the Conservatives. Norris sees this as the impetus for the Conservative juggernaut to roll on triumphantly on to the general election. A Labour and Livingstone win might take the gloss off the Cameron image but would still be seen only as a ‘Charge of the Light Brigade’, brave but futile, as the overwhelming feeling that Brown has lost it grows both at home and abroad.