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Keeping politicians well fed is important for a democracy. The Punjabi style of hospitality involves giving them chairmanships of government corporations — and it has many. So by April 21, 900,000 tons had been procured this year by Punjab State Cooperative Supply and Marketing Federation, 800,000 tons by Punjab State Civil Supplies Corporation, 700,000 tons by Punjab State Grains Procurement Corporation, 500,000 tons by Punjab State Warehousing Corporation, and 400,000 tons by Punjab Agro-Industries Corporation. The Central government’s Food Corporation of India had procured only 340,000 tons, but if its managing director manages to remember the names of the various Punjabi corporations, he already has 3.6 million tons procured — and it is reported that half a million ton may be arriving at the markets every day. So wheat procurement is not going to cause the Central government any worry; it could pick up 15 million tons and still leave something for the market.
A good crop is clearly the major reason for the generous procurement. The Central government puts a figure of 76.8 million tons on the crop — a million ton more than last year’s record crop. But a more important reason is the Essential Commodities Act that the government has unleashed. With its application, holding — or hoarding, as the government would call it — stocks means inviting endless harassment and paying out enormous bribes, so traders have kept away from the market. With them out of the way, the government has to buy; if it did not, the market would crash, and Punjabi farmers would be very cross with the government. So a time may come, in the next week or two, when the government would have to decide whether it has had enough, or whether it must keep buying to keep farmers happy. Since the happiness of powerful constituencies is the government’s foremost aim, it is likely to buy and buy until the market is sucked clean of stocks.
That may not be such a bad thing; it could, in fact, be good business for the government. For international wheat prices are much higher than the Rs 10,000 a ton the government is paying. Even discounting for the fact that a tenth at least of what the government buys would be unsaleable, it could make huge profits by buying cheap from farmers and selling at a high price to foreigners. The wheat may also be of diplomatic use at a time so many countries are suffering from food shortage; an Arab or African dictator may remember with gratitude a million ton or two that the government may be able to spare him this year. Still, the government cannot lose sight of short-term objectives. Once it has enough, it should stop buying for a while, and let the market price crash. Not much will be transacted at the low price, but it will bring down the wholesale price index.
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