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The third way

The painting on the wall — an M.F. Husain in black on white — in the anteroom is almost like a road sign, pointing the way to N. Chandrababu Naidu’s office. A print? “It’s an original,” an aide says, looking suitably offended.

The Real McCoy, though, is inside. The former chief minister of Andhra Pradesh, once referred to as the Chief Executive Officer of his state, is in his office — and clearly in election mode. And Naidu, who has been touring the state ever since his defeat in the 2004 poll, is looking at alliances.

“We are working on an alternative forum and we are in constant touch with the Left parties on this,” he says. “People are tired of the communal politics of the BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party) and the corrupt ways of the Congress,” he says.

Ho hum, some would say. The third front — call it what you will, a third alternative, as the Left now refers to it, or a non-Congress, non-BJP alliance — is a been-there-done-that phenomenon that still crops up as a proposition before every other poll. Quite like the phoenix, it rises from its own ashes — only to destroy itself again. “It has not been able to cross the threshold of viability,” says political analyst Yogendra Yadav.

But a third front, once again, is being given shape — and the finer details are being etched out in Naidu’s Jubilee Hills house-cum-office in Hyderabad. After all, it is a formation that has ruled at the Centre in different forms on three occasions in the last three decades. Naidu, for one, doesn’t believe that the alliance will be a ragtag formation. “Not just the agenda, we will change the future of India in 2009,” he stresses.

Elections, it may be noted, are in the air. Earlier this week, the CPI(M) urged the Congress to make its position on the Indo-US nuclear deal clear before March 15. CPI general secretary A.B. Bardhan sent a letter on Friday to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh threatening to withdraw support if the government went ahead with the deal. “The Congress is hoping to stretch its rule till the deal is signed; the Left is looking for an opportune moment to withdraw before the deal goes through,” says Samajwadi Party (SP) leader and member of Parliament Mohan Singh.

Till then, loose alliances are being formed in the state and at the Centre. “The third front has so far been associated with elections,” says CPI(M) central committee member Nilotpal Basu. “A third alternative, on the other hand, promises a platform based on policies,” he says. SP Rajya Sabha member Shahid Siddiqui adds that the front will not be just a power formation but offer “a socio-economic” alternative. “Once we are in election mode, the alliance will concretise,” he says.

So far, the players are mainly from the United National Progressive Alliance (UNPA), often unkindly referred to as a group of out-of-work chief ministers. It comprises Naidu’s Telegu Desam Party, Prafulla Mahanta’s Asom Gona Parisad, Om Prakash Chautala’s Indian National Lok Dal, Farooq Abdullah’s National Conference, Babulal Marandi’s Jharkhand Vikas Manch and Mulayam Singh Yadav’s SP.

The left parties joined them at a farmers’ rally in New Delhi last week. The UNPA has held meetings in Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh in recent weeks. On Sunday, it will meet in Jaipur for a rally, and on March 16 in Azamgarh in Uttar Pradesh. “Work has begun on an alternative to the Congress and the BJP,” says SP’s Singh.

The numbers, however, don’t add up for the front. In 2004, the BJP and the Congress together won less than 50 per cent of the vote. “I don’t see any major shift in popular choices in the next election,” says Yadav. Some early analyses predict that the BJP may lose seats, but its National Democratic Alliance partners — such as J. Jayalalithaa in Tamil Nadu — may gain. On the other hand, the Congress may gain seats, while its United Progressive Alliance partners — including N. Karunanidhi’s Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam — may lose seats. “But then we may have a situation where the Congress supports the third alternative,” says an ever-optimistic Siddiqui.

The would-be alliance is not greatly worried about the arithmetic of government formation. It expects realignments to take place during the polls. “We are trying to forge an alliance of all Left, secular and democratic forces for a viable alternative,” says CPI national secretary and Rajya Sabha member D. Raja. “There are some parties that are not on the side of the Left, but we don’t want them to be on the side of the Right.”

The TDP and SP believe that some allies may withdraw from the UPA and the NDA in favour of the third option. The Left has maintained its ties with the DMK, which has been unhappy with the Congress’s wishy-washy position on the Ram Setu project — opposed by the BJP and supported by the DMK. The Left has ties with Sharad Pawar and his Nationalist Congress Party, and the Janata Dal (United) has made overtures to the UNPA. “(Bihar chief minister) Nitish Kumar is keen to join us,” says an SP leader. “Ram Vilas Paswan and Ajit Singh are expected to be a part of the front,” he says.

In some circles, the formation may bring up images of the dark days of political squabbling and governments toppling. The Congress and the BJP are openly derisive of any attempts at forging a third alliance. “We are not the least bit perturbed by this illusory arrangement,” says BJP spokesperson Ravi Shankar Prasad. “The Left will not want a communal combination to form the government,” reasons Congress spokesperson Satyavrat Chaturvedi.

The critics list the number of problems that a third front at the Centre has faced. For one, says Yadav, it is often without a cohesive programme or a larger national perspective. “It’s a paradox that while the space for a third alternative is growing — as a result of people’s movements in many parts of the country — the space occupied by third front parties is shrinking,” says Yadav.

That, he argues, is because many of the front leaders lack political vision. “It’s curious that while they may have personal ambition, they don’t have political ambition. Mulayam Singh Yadav may want to be the Prime Minister, but his politics are narrow,” he says. Personal ambitions, of course, have led to the rise and fall of six Prime Ministers in as many years on the three occasions since 1977 when a non-Congress and non-BJP front formed a government at the Centre.

“The problem was that these political formations imploded. The Janata Dal is a classic example of how a political party can commit suicide,” says Yadav. Yet for parties in the Left and groups such as the UNPA, an alternative is imperative. The Left, for instance, cannot withdraw support to Manmohan Singh’s government, and support him again after the next parliamentary poll. “So we are looking for a durable, distinct and viable front,” says Basu. Raja adds that the Left will be on the lookout for state-specific alliances.

A former Janata Dal member agrees that earlier governments have been self-destructive, but is optimistic about an alliance coming together at the Centre after the polls. “People’s memories are short,” he reasons.

The debate hasn’t yet reached that stage where the parties will decide on their prospective Prime Minister. There are, of course, as many contenders as there will be parties — barring the Left. In Jubilee Hills, plans are being chalked out for the next public rally. Naidu sits at his desk, towering over everybody else in his office. His chair, interestingly enough, is higher than the seats across the table. Mulayam Singh Yadav may not like that.

Additional reporting by G.S. Radhakrishna in Hyderabad

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