Feeling the water, measuring the temperature, reading the tea leaves — call it what you will, but there can be no doubt that the announcement of the dates of the assembly elections in Himachal Pradesh is a calculated first step towards the decision to call early Lok Sabha polls. The elections to the Gujarat assembly were slated to be held in early December, since the term of the present assembly expires on December 26. The Himachal Pradesh assembly could continue to sit till March 9, 2008. In other words, there was no need to hold polls in Himachal so early. The more significant aspect is that, according to most observers, the Congress, the ruling party, may not be particularly well-placed in Himachal Pradesh. Despite this, the elections are being held well before their scheduled date. It is not unreasonable to speculate that there are bigger and deeper reasons behind such a move. The word speculate is used advisedly. The Congress president, Sonia Gandhi, has deliberately cultivated the image of being an enigma wrapped in a riddle. Thus it is never possible to know her reasoning. This opens up the realm of speculation.

The context of the decision is a pointer. The Congress has reached the end of its tether as far as its alliance with the Left is concerned. This alliance threatens to come apart any day. When this happens, sooner rather than later, elections to the Lok Sabha will become inevitable. There are no clues, however, to how the Congress might fare in case early polls to the Lok Sabha cannot be avoided. Thus, both Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh can become test cases in two different ways. The results of the elections in Gujarat will serve as an indicator of the strength or otherwise of the Bharatiya Janata Party, the Congress’s principal rival. The results of the Himachal Pradesh elections will show, at least to some extent, the strength or weakness of the Congress. It is reasonable to assume that based on these indicators the decision to hold Lok Sabha polls, and when to hold them, can be made. This set of speculations — by no means unrealistic — clearly suggests that there is an element of uncertainty within the Congress about its own position. One aspect of dynamic leadership is the ability to take reality by the horns. It remains to be seen if the Congress leadership has the courage to do this or if it will allow time and events to take their own course.