| Washington,
Aug. 22: While the Left parties and the Congress
are quarrelling over the next steps towards operationalising
the nuclear deal, the deadline for formal consideration
of any India-specific agreement by the International Atomic
Energy Agency (IAEA) this year has quietly passed.
According to IAEA officials in
Vienna, August 17 — one month before the start of the organisations
General Conference — was the deadline for including any
item in the agenda for the annual meeting.
Should the Director General
receive by 17 August 2007 any request under Rule 13 for
inclusion of a supplementary item in the agenda, such an
item will, unless Rule 21 applies, be placed in a list which
will be circulated no later than 27 August 2007, according
to an IAEA circular sent out to member countries as part
of preparations for the annual meeting.
Officials said that till the passing
of the deadline, New Delhi had not given notice of any India-specific
item related to the nuclear deal to be included in the General
Conference next month.
Whether an act of omission or
commission, it may provide an olive branch in the standoff
between the Left and the Congress that could be the starting
point for a compromise.
The IAEAs next General Conference
will take place only from September 29, 2008, which will
give the ruling alliance enough time to either sort out
the nuclear tangle or split up and seek a new popular mandate.
By then, however, the nuclear
deal may be dead for practical reasons. The US will be only
a few weeks away from elections for a new president and
a new Congress. It is highly unlikely that a president with
three-and-a-half months left in transition will have the
political capital to see through the passage of the 123
Agreement in his legislature.
The US Congress may itself decide
that it is best left to a new legislature to take a view
of the 123 pact in consultation with a successor White House.
The provisional agenda for next
months IAEA General Conference, however, has loopholes
to take a view on issues related to the nuclear deal even
past the August 17 deadline if the Manmohan Singh government
takes a hard line and decides not to give in to the Left
ultimatum.
According to the provisional agenda,
which has been distributed among ambassadors in Vienna accredited
to the UN, there are two items of interest to New Delhi.
Item 16 refers to strengthening
the Agencys technical cooperation activities
while item 18 refers to strengthening the effectiveness
and improving the efficiency of the safeguards system and
application of the model additional protocol.
If the Indian delegation to the
General Conference, which is likely to be led by Anil Kakodkar,
chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission, is determined
or creative enough to use these loopholes, they may still
be able to push in their priorities — or at least discuss
the Indian issues, if only to gauge the mood in the global
nuclear watchdog.
If this is the Indian strategy,
neither the India-specific safeguards agreement nor an
additional protocol need go to the IAEA Board of Governors
beforehand.
The board is meeting from September
10 to 14 but will reconvene on November 22 and 23.
By that time, the crisis in the
UPA may have been sorted out one way or another and Kakodkar
would have obtained a sense of the mood in the IAEA at the
General Conference before India can approach the board for
the next steps in the nuclear deal. |