Pervez Musharraf has been in the line of fire for quite some time. Hence, one is neither surprised nor shocked at the various versions of media reports of July 7, on Musharraf’s lucky escape from an anti-aircraft gun attack. However, what appeared fascinatingly intriguing was the subsequent denial by the director-general of the ISI’s public relations, Major General Waheed Arshad, that rockets had been fired at the president’s aircraft.

But ever since Musharraf staged a coup and became president in October 1999, there has existed a threat to his life from all possible and impossible corners of Pakistan.

The last serious attempts on Musharraf’s life took place on December 14 and December 25, 2003 respectively, adjacent to the Army House, the official residence of the Pakistan army chief in Rawalpindi.

Interestingly, however, the so-called assassination bid of last Friday took place near the Chaklala Air Force Base, which is about 4 kms from the Army House in Rawalpindi, and 10 kms from Islamabad. Chaklala is also the base of 35 Composite Air Transport Wing from which 6, 12 and 41 squadrons operate the transport fleet of the Pakistan air force. In brief, Chaklala is not only the headquarters of the Pakistan air force, but also the hub of the VVIP movement of the nation.

Close to Chaklala is also stationed one of the most prestigious and powerful garrisons of the Pakistan army, the X Corps, at Rawalpindi. With three infantry divisions, one armoured brigade and two infantry brigades under the corps, the area between Islamabad and Rawalpindi could easily be termed as an impregnable fortress of the Orient. Yet the area was used for taking pot shots at the chief of the Pakistan army who is the head of the State. How could it be possible? Was the ‘attempt’ on Musharraf’s life real or imaginary?

It was reported by the Pakistani media that the anti-aircraft guns, which were to be used for shooting down Musharraf’s plane, were of Russian origin, thereby indicating that they could have been smuggled. However, a careful scrutiny of the documents of world armament trade and industry clearly shows that Pakistan till recently had in possession at least four types of towed anti-aircraft guns. Initially manufactured by the former Soviet Union, these were later supplied from the inventory of the Chinese garrison.

Irrespective of the nature and quality of the abortive attempt on Musharraf’s life on Friday, from the neighbourhood of the Chaklala air force base, the signs of challenge to the reign and rule of the chief of Pakistan army are too obvious to be ignored. Though Musharraf is not the first Pakistani army chief to resort to coup, he perhaps could be the first amongst his three coup predecessors (Ayub Khan, Yahya Khan and Zia-ul-Haq) to be shot by his own countrymen, primarily because he appears to have tinkered with the religious sentiments of his fraternity. To be fair to Musharraf, that certainly would be bad for both the military, mullahs and the merchants of the nation.

If Musharraf falls in the midst of bloodshed and assassination today, it would be because of the long string of violence by the ruling class of Islamabad for its own survival and continuation at the helm of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan and the desire to prove themselves as the true torch-bearers of the tenets of political Islam East of Suez.

Thus, Pakistan may not be the custodian of the Qaba, but it would love to be seen championing the cause of Khalistan; support, aid and abet the terrorists in Kashmir; constantly challenge the Dar-ul-Harb of the kafirs of Hindustan; encourage- cross-border gun-running through Khyber; cause panic in the corridors of power in New Delhi through misadventures like Kargil; maintain a Kalashnikov culture through the ghazis and jihadis across the world; and yet be branded as the frontline state to fight the global war on terrorism.

The problem with Pakistan is that Musharraf inherited a legacy of violence, and he himself, as the Pakistani army chief and the president, is a product of it. The writing on the wall for Musharraf is clear. It is no longer a question of his staying or going. It is now a question of when and how he is going. Bad days are looming for the General. The flip side of the story is that Musharraf’s fall would be bad for the morale of the Pakistan army, since it would mean that it had failed to save the life of its serving commander-in-chief.