Climate change is the most significant threat to the ability of the planet to sustain life. The report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change was quite clear in stating that unless we act decisively in the coming decade, there will be centuries of devastating climate change. Greenhouse gas emissions have to start declining by 2015, or there is little chance that we will be able to contain the increase in the average temperature to less than 2 degrees Celsius and prevent “dangerous” climate change.

The people of the Indian subcontinent will face a massive impact, caught between the melting glaciers of the Himalayas and rising sea levels. It is certain that the Gangotri glacier will disappear in the first half of this century, leaving the Ganga a seasonal river, with profound consequences to the lives of the few hundred million people who live in the Indo-Gangetic plain. Rising sea levels will threaten the vast coastline, including coastal cities like Calcutta and Dhaka, with submergence. Monsoons would be more erratic, causing both floods and droughts and affecting agriculture. Massive population displacement across the eastern Indian subcontinent, caused by climate changes, is certain and will cause political, social and economic upheaval on an unprecedented scale. Some of the poorest people in the world, who have had no hand in climate change, will be the first to suffer. Andree Boehling, a climate expert, says that a new category of refugees has already been created. They enjoy no political protection because their plight is not recognized.

The term, “climate refugee”, was coined about a decade ago to describe those forced out of their homes by climate change. But the category is not officially recognized by individual governments or by the United Nations. A study carried out by the Red Cross and Red Crescent in 2000 found that 25 million people have already left their homes because of environmental stress, amounting roughly to the same number as those displaced by armed conflict. All this may happen in the not too distant future. In fact, the first climate refugees in India have already been created in the Sunderbans. The twin factors — direct submergence of land and land rendered uninhabitable by the rising salinity of water sources, caused by the rise in sea level — have led to their displacement.

The script for Bangladesh in the coming century will be written over the next ten years. Rapid melting of the Himalayan glaciers will lead to a swollen Ganga and Bramhaputra, causing significant flooding of the delta areas. These floods will compound the woes created by the rising sea level. It is predicted that more than 20 per cent of Bangladesh would be under water if sea levels rise by as little as one metre. Given the dense population in the low-lying coastal areas of Bangladesh, it is estimated that in the next 50 to 100 years, there would be as many as 35 to 40 million refugees in Bangladesh alone. The poverty of the region will severely inhibit the ability of the population and the government to take steps to adapt to this change. This would lead to a refugee problem for India on a scale much larger than that which occurred in 1971.

While the government of India refuses to subject itself to carbon curbs on grounds of “climate justice” in international negotiations, one wonders if the governments of West Bengal and Assam will be able to find the moral high ground when sea levels begin to rise and it becomes necessary for them to keep out the human tide that will inevitably sweep through their states. India can build fences to keep Bangladesh citizens out in less tumultuous times, but can it deny the Bangladeshi climate refugee, adrift on a raft, the right to his life by forcibly pinning him down to his ‘side’ of an inundated border?

The industrialized nations that have caused global warming deny the existence of climate refugees, and use their refugee laws to avoid having to deal with them. Will India follow in their footsteps?

On the one hand, the challenge for governments on the eastern coastline is to promote development without eroding threatened habitats such as the mangrove swamps and the marshlands, which are natural tide barriers, through strict enforcement of laws. (A Greenpeace team has documented effects caused by climate change in Orissa. Simultaneous droughts and floods have emerged as a pattern in the last six years. Higher temperatures, loss of agricultural land and a changing coastline have been the other results.)

On the other hand, governments have to respond urgently with legislation to promote energy-efficiency in their states through the ‘top-runner model’ and also address the broader issues of emissions. It is estimated that the top-line energy requirement can come down by as much as 47 per cent if aggressive steps are taken to improve efficiency. As the IPCC mitigation report points out, “it is often cheaper to invest in end-use energy efficiency improvement than in increasing energy supply to satisfy energy demand. Efficiency improvement has a positive effect on energy security and employment.”

It is also clear that there are significant synergies between participatory, equitable and sustainable development of the North-east and strategies to mitigate climate change. The United Liberation Front of Asom recognizes this in the latest edition of its mouthpiece, Freedom, when it links climate-friendly technologies with democratic control over natural resources and denounces the “pillage and exploitation” that climate-unfriendly technologies invariably unleash. Governments of the north-eastern states need to seize this moment to tap into enormous resources that are being mobilized globally for climate-friendly development.

Climate change is arguably the biggest threat to India, which is well on its way to becoming one of the leading economies of the world by 2050. The Nicholas Stern review of the economic impact of climate change predicts that a temperature rise between 2 degrees Celsius and 3.5 degrees Celsius would cost India a loss of 9 per cent and 25 per cent of its total agricultural revenue. Worst case scenarios in the same report predict a loss of up to 13 per cent of the gross domestic product to climate change by 2100.

It is therefore vital that India moves towards a low carbon economy quickly. It must emulate China and set immediate targets for the reduction of the carbon intensity of its economy. China’s 11th five year plan of national economic development for 2006-2010 states that the energy consumption per unit of GDP (energy intensity) shall decrease by 20 per cent. Further, China’s mid-to-long-term energy efficiency plan states that energy intensity shall further reduce to 45 per cent by 2020.

On the fossil fuel front, India should invest significantly in gas- based power generation, which causes the lowest emissions per unit of electricity generated, and should reduce drastically the share of coal (the worst fuel from a climate perspective). The biggest impediment to this strategy is the energy security consideration arising from the fact that India has enormous coal reserves, although it needs to import gas. India is already on the path to securing its energy future through diplomacy, and it must look more to Bangladesh as a key source of gas.

Bangladesh must invoke the “common but differentiated responsibility” principle on climate change and demand from India a review of the coal-based thermal power stations that are popping up all across its border. In turn, it is in its own interest to provide India access to its abundant natural gas. Given the stark socio-economic and geographic reality and the grim certainty about the future, the two sovereign nations must engage with each other by linking India’s energy security needs with the climate security implications for Bangladesh.

Perhaps this would be best approached as a part of a larger framework of cooperation, where the two nations try to put in place measures that enable their population (especially of the Gangetic delta) to cope with climate change while fostering an energy partnership that enables the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.