In a state that had become a euphemism for political fragmentation along sectarian lines, the Bahujan Samaj Party’s unambiguous victory in the long, seven-phase election to the Uttar Pradesh assembly heralds a decisive break with the past. Whereas the pollsters had predicted a fractured mandate, leading to either President’s Rule or a fragile coalition of expediency, the voters have opted for stability and reposed their faith in the leadership of Ms Mayavati. Barring an unanticipated act of self-destruction, UP can now settle down to a five-year continuity in governance that is neither marred by revolving-door arrangements nor the political blackmail of bit players. With some integrity, dynamism and luck, the country’s largest state may now even play its part in bolstering the development indices.

For Ms Mayavati, who views herself as the head of a social movement rather than merely of a political party, the victory is a monumental opportunity. In earlier elections, she leveraged her hold over Dalit voters to entice other parties into giving her tactical support. On this occasion, Ms Mayavati used her unwavering core support to craft a new social coalition within the BSP. The Dalit-led caste alliance, which now includes a section of upper-caste Hindus and Muslims in a subordinate role, is an inverted replica of the Congress system, which dominated the politics of the Hindi heartland till 1989. So far, this sarvasamaj experiment, which led the BSP to shed its abrasive message of caste antagonism, has been confined to one state. However, if Ms Mayavati succeeds in using UP as the springboard for the BSP’s expansion into neighbouring states, it will lead to large-scale political convulsions. The Congress is certain to be affected most by Ms Mayavati’s national ambitions, but, as the UP results clearly show, the Bhara- tiya Janata Party will be equally devastated by this enlarged Bahujan community.

Indeed, it was the pathetic performance of the two national parties in UP that could be indicative of things to come. The energetic campaign of Rahul Gandhi hardly had any effect either on the Congress’s tally of seats or on its share of the popular vote. Likewise, despite all the hype surrounding a dramatic comeback, the BJP lost ground dramatically. At the heart of the failure of both parties was their inability to connect with local aspirations — both dynasty and Hindutva proved a trifle too remote. With a substantial chunk of the states being governed by regional parties — either singly or with national parties playing a supporting role — there are good reasons to believe that the space for pan-Indian issues is rapidly shrinking. President A.P.J. Abdul Kalam’s cry for the emergence of a two-party system may strike a chord among those who are anxious to effect a greater integration of India in the world economy, but democratic empowerment has involved emerging local elites first exploring ways of exercising power locally. The UP verdict is a signal for the national parties to either reinvent themselves along meaningful federal lines — as has happened in America — or fade into irrelevance.