Gorakhpur, May 7: The Bahujan Samaj Party appears poised for gains in eastern Uttar Pradesh even as the BJP and the Samajwadi Party struggle to retain their turf.

Fifty-nine seats in the three divisions of Faizabad, Ayodhya and Gorakhpur are up for grabs in Tuesday’s vote, the last in a seven-stage election that began last month.

The BSP is hoping to cash in on the erosion in the Samajwadi Party’s support. Mulayam Singh Yadav also has to contend with rebels: Beni Prasad Verma, an influential Kurmi leader who walked out on the chief minister, is contesting from Ayodhya with Congress support.

Verma could split the Kurmi votes that earlier went to Mulayam, especially in Faizabad and Azamgarh.

If Verma is the face of Kurmi resentment, the Rajbhars, the Noias and the Kushwahas aren’t happy with the Samajwadi Party either. Together, these four castes make up 14 per cent of Other Backward Class votes in the region, which had given Mulayam 21 MLAs in the 2002 polls.

This time, a churning among the OBCs might oust the chief minister — the way they showed Lalu Prasad’s Rashtriya Janata Dal the door in the November 2005 Bihar polls.

Law-and-order problems are another bugbear for Mulayam. And, he hardly helped his cause when he praised don-turned-politician Harishankar Tiwari at a Gorakhpur rally.

Tiwari is believed to be close to Amarmani Tripathi, the main accused in the Madhumita Shukla murder case.

For the BSP, expected to ride high on the support of chamar voters, who make up 10.5 per cent of the electorate, this appears to be an election where things couldn’t get better. Upper-caste votes will be an added boost for the party, which had bagged 17 seats in the region last time.

The BJP’s challenge is to convince voters that it is still committed to the principles of Hindutva and the Ram temple at Ayodhya if it is to improve its previous tally of 10. Senior leaders ignored Yogi Adityanath initially but, fearing the threat of a revolt, got the Gorakhpur MP on board.

The riots in January may polarise Hindu voters, but rebel candidates fielded at the behest of Adityanath could undo the gains. The MP hasn’t withdrawn these contenders despite assurances to the BJP.

The Congress sent Rahul Gandhi to draw young voters, but he didn’t adapt his campaign to the region. His development slogans had little impact on floating voters in a region where poverty is rampant, and killer diseases like cerebral malaria and encephalitis occur with alarming frequency. The party is banking entirely on the “Rahul magic” to improve its tally of four seats in 2002.