The budget was originally a statement of the government’s intentions to tax, borrow and spend, placed before a parliament for approval. The two world wars raised levels of taxation and borrowing to such levels in combatant countries that governments had to take account of their impact on the national economy. Hence arose the practice of preparing national accounts and estimating the effect of alternative budgets; a review of the state of the economy was a by-product. In the Sixties, the Indian government began to publish this survey to give legislators and the public an idea of what macroeconomic conditions formed its background. But the Economic Survey grew and grew. Today, it is a compendium of narrative, admonition and self-congratulation.

Thus, this year’s Economic Survey begins with a boast about the dazzling growth, tempers it with a warning about inflation, and modestly takes credit for the government’s fiscal self-control. But sometimes, more by accident than design, interesting facts fall into its capacious net. For instance, the most important item of Indians’ expenditure, next only to food, is transport and communications; they have been rapidly increasing their expenditure on it, and now spend almost a fifth of their consumption expenditure on it. What are they running away from? Whom are they running off to? Maybe, they are not so much running about as chattering on their cellphones. It is known that investment has been rising even faster than national income, and has led the boom. It would be forgivable if anyone thought that this was investment in machines, factories and ports. However, the Economic Survey lets out a secret — that investment also includes something called valuables. Have government sleuths been going through safe deposit vaults and adding up the gold Indians have salted away? They would not admit it, but something like that is going on. Economists say that savings equals investment. People use their savings to shower jewellery on their departing daughters; it must, therefore, show up in national product, little as it adds to productive capacity.

However, ultimately, the Economic Survey must be an exposition of government economic policy. On the crucial macroeconomic issue facing the government — inflation — it does not quite convince. It reiterates the official view that inflation arises from an inadequate supply of a few agricultural commodities; its solution is “increasing yields through technological diffusion.” Poor agricultural growth did not arise yesterday; it has been there since the Nineties. The government has had all the time to diffuse technology — and has had zero effect. It happily dons the jewellery of dazzling growth; but it is difficult to avoid the suspicion that the Emperor has no clothes.