Mulayam: What next?

New Delhi, Feb. 16: Serious confabulations have begun at the highest levels of the government and the Congress to explore the possibility of bringing Uttar Pradesh under President’s rule.

The exercise — prompted by the Supreme Court’s disqualification of 13 MLAs who helped chief minister Mulayam Singh Yadav prove his majority in 2003 — went on all day and focused on political and legal aspects of the matter.

First, whether the Mulayam government can be deemed “constitutionally illegal” because it depended on the support of the rebel BSP legislators who were disqualified.

Second, if the ruling on the first batch of 13 MLAs would extend to the 27 who followed suit. The court had left it to the Assembly Speaker to decide their status.

Third, whether the chief minister could seek a floor test when the verdict cast doubts on the very legality of his government.

Last, if his government’s dismissal would make Mulayam a “martyr” in the eyes of his supporters and give him a fresh lease of political life.

This morning, foreign minister Pranab Mukherjee had a meeting with Ahmed Patel, Sonia Gandhi’s political secretary, A.K. Antony and Kapil Sibal. Later, Sonia, Mukherjee and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh met again.

“The discussions are on and a clear view could emerge by tomorrow,” said a minister involved in the exercise.

The Congress thinks that elections held under the Mulayam government would not be “free and fair”, even if the Election Commission keeps a hawk’s eye out and phases the polling over four or five days. This opinion is shared by the BJP, the BSP and Ajit Singh’s Rashtriya Lok Dal.

However, Congress sources said that before taking any step, the party would have to take allies on board.

“The promulgation of President’s rule will have to be ratified by both Houses of Parliament and we cannot take a chance,” said a central minister.

The Congress leaders today met CPM general secretary Prakash Karat, whose party has steadfastly supported Mulayam since 1993.

Karat, however, said: “The chief minister should be given a chance to prove his majority on the floor of the House.”

Mukherjee will also speak to DMK chief M. Karunanidhi, who has opposed the use of Article 356 in the past.

The CPI has no love lost for Mulayam, nor does Lalu Prasad.

Ram Vilas Paswan’s stand is a bit ambiguous because of the competitive nature of Dalit politics, which makes the BSP a greater adversary for him than Mulayam. Former Prime Minister V.P. Singh would be speaking to him.

The Samajwadi Party government is safe till February 26, when Mulayam will seek a vote of confidence.

Party leaders said the threat of President’s rule does not worry them. Their calculation is that the dismissal of the government can be used to polarise voters in the state ahead of the Assembly elections.

Samajwadi chief whip in Parliament Mohan Singh, however, said pushing for President’s rule would be a costly error for the Congress.

“The Congress should not do the blunder of dismissing our government and, thus, giving a mileage to the BJP,” he said. “Still if the Congress decides to do this, it would only be making things difficult for itself in the UP elections.”