An otherwise inconsequential verdict for the status quo, the story of the assembly by-election for Islampur is significant because of the political context in which it unfolded. The only major event that has happened in Bengal between last May’s assembly polls and the Islampur by-election is the political controversy over the Tata group’s proposed automobile project in Singur. If anything, the verdict in Islampur shows that the opposition’s campaign on the issue has had no effect on the voters’ choice there. Clearly, Islampur, in north Bengal, is too far away from Ms Mamata Banerjee’s shrinking sphere of influence around Calcutta where the Singur issue has caused a minor ripple. The overriding impression from the Islampur result, though, is that the people still prefer the left’s leadership to that of the non-left parties. Even if the left, unlike Ms Banerjee, did not use the Singur issue during the by-election campaign, it may take the result as a vindication of its reformist economic policies.

For Ms Banerjee, Islampur has another important lesson. The voting there reiterated a pattern that had been evident in the May elections. If a divided opposition remains an advantage for the left, the division of votes between the Congress and the Trinamool Congress makes the left’s job so much easier. On the other hand, the recent by-election to the Bongaon assembly constituency proved that the left could be defeated if the two parties closed ranks. Islampur has a history of electing non-left candidates. When the Communist Party of India (Marxist) won the seat last May, it did so for the first time since 1987. If the left won there again, that too in the face of the opposition’s Singur charge, it was largely due to the rivalry between the Congress and the Trinamool. The result exposes the futility of Ms Banerjee’s latest strategy of moving closer to the Bharatiya Janata Party over the Singur issue. Her only hope of political success lies in rebuilding bridges with the Congress.