The peace process in Nepal has inched very close to a solution. The Maoists have extended the ceasefire by another three months, citing progress in the peace talks. There was a time, earlier this summer, when it seemed that the interim government of G.P. Koirala would keel over, that there would be no arms management with the Maoists, and that Nepal might hurtle towards chaos. That is certainly no longer the case.

There is believed to be broad understanding that the Peoples’ Liberation Army would agree to go into seven designated cantonments and its combatants would be separated from their arms, which would be registered, tagged and stored under lock and key.

The key to the stored arms will be with the Maoist leadership but the weapons would be under UN surveillance through close circuit cameras. An equal number of arms of the Nepal Army would also be locked up.

The seven-party alliance interim government led by Koirala is insisting that if the Maoist leadership keeps the only key to the stored arms, the lock must have a UN seal. This is a variation on the earlier proposal that the arms should be stored under a dual-key mechanism — two separate locks with one of the keys set aside for the Maoists and the other kept with the UN. The Maoists are resisting the move for a UN seal at the moment but may eventually agree.

The arms management would be choreographed with a series of political steps announced as a package. The interim government would sign a peace treaty, incorporating a provision for permanent ceasefire and arms management, as well as a human rights treaty with the Maoists.

While the arms are being separated from Maoist combatants, the house of representatives, restored after the April revolution, would adopt an interim constitution and then dissolve itself. A broad agreement has been reached on the contents of the interim constitution.

A new interim house of representatives would replace the dissolved House. It has apparently been agreed that the new House would have 300 members, instead of the current strength of 205 — with the Nepali Congress, the Communist Party of Nepal (United Marxist Leninist) and the Maoists having roughly an equal number of members. The political parties already represented in the current House are likely to renominate the sitting members to the new legislature.

The new legislature would legitimize itself by once again adopting the interim constitution. After that, a 23-member interim government with the participation of the Maoists will be sworn in. The share of the major political parties, — the NC, UML, Nepali Congress (Democratic) and the Maoists — it is agreed, would be equal, about four portfolios each.

Thereafter, the dates for the election of a 425-member constituent assembly would be announced. These elections are scheduled for next summer. While 205 candidates are likely to be elected from the existing parliamentary constituencies, the political parties get to nominate 204 members based on the proportion of votes polled in the constituent assembly elections. The prime minister will nominate the remaining 16 members.

The fate of the monarchy would be decided by the constituent assembly. In the interregnum — between now and the formation of the new constitution, the king’s role would remain marginal. All the public properties (forests, land, palaces and so on ) currently owned by the king would be nationalized, leaving him only with his private property.

While there may be some variation in the choreography of the proposed peace process leading to the formation of an interim government with the Maoists and the election of a constituent assembly, there is little doubt that the dominant tendency is in the direction of a political resolution. There can be no going back from the peace process for the Maoists.

The peace process and arms management allow the Maoists to draw the attention of the international community as responsible political players. They stand to gain international legitimacy and credibility through it and such an opportunity may not come again. If the Maoists are still making demands now, they should be understood as bids to get the best possible deal rather than attempts to jeopardize peace.

There are, however, some serious issues still to be resolved. Two difficult areas that must be addressed are the question of a UN seal on the lock of the storage depots for Maoist arms, and bringing Maoist militia (as opposed to the PLA), under control.

The political parties are insisting that only a UN seal on the lock put by the Maoists on arms storage sites can reassure the people of Nepal that the rebels will not have access to arms. Without this reassurance, they fear, there cannot be a free and fair election to the constituent assembly. The SPA leaders are confident of convincing the Maoist leadership on this issue.

Maoist militia have come under widespread criticism, for continuing abductions, beatings and extortion despite the peace process. While the PLA is in Maoist barracks, the militia are more amorphous and difficult to control. There are reports that they carry some small arms. They have made life very difficult for ordinary folk in Nepal.

After sequential arms management, the Maoist leadership will either have to control the militia, or disown them if they get criminalized. The Nepal government has been reluctant to take firm action against the Maoist militia, not wanting to upset the Maoists.However, once it is agreed that the rule of the gun is no longer legitimate, the law and order machinery can step in. To prepare for that stage, it would be imperative to strengthen the Nepal police and the armed police. Both have been demoralized in the last six months as the Maoists have been allowed a free run.

As far as unresolved political issues between the seven political parties in the alliance are concerned, the UML has asked for a referendum on the monarchy and the creation of a republican front.

Given that the monarchy has been virtually marginalized in Nepal in the last six months, the demand seems somewhat inexplicable. The king or the royalists can do very little. The Nepal army is unlikely to take on the Maoists on behalf of the king. The Nepal army effectively cannot bring about any change without an Indian or Chinese nod and without their help it cannot sustain a coup, even if it tried to mount one.

Moreover, as Laxman Basnet, president of the Nepal Trade Union Congress puts it, “A referendum will in fact become a method for inviting the monarchy into politics. Even if the king gets ten per cent votes, how does one ignore that while advocating inclusive politics? This issue is best left to the Constituent Assembly.”

The UML may be making the demand for a referendum and for a republican front because it is threatened by the defection of its cadre outside the Kathmandu valley to the Maoists. The Maoists are also trying to takeover the trade unions which are substantially controlled by the UML. Perhaps, the referendum demand has simply arisen out of the competitive politics between the Maoists and the UML. Eventually, the UML will have to leave the referendum issue. As for the proposal for a republican front, that has already fizzled out.