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US diplomacy holds the key

Beirut, July 16 (Reuters): Only US diplomacy can now end a crisis between Hizbollah and Israel that has escalated from a bid to force the release of two Israeli soldiers into a war that threatens to suck in the militants’ Syrian and Iranian allies.

While the US has expressed concern about mounting civilian casualties, it has placed the blame squarely on Hizbollah and urged Syria and Iran to force it to stop fighting.

So far, diplomats say, Israel has a green light from Washington to carry out its attacks in Lebanon. It has resisted pressure from Egypt, Jordan and the European Union to join any initiative to end the fighting.

“Both sides are stuck in position now. The only way out is if the US decides to make them stop. It requires very creative diplomacy,” said Timur Goksel, veteran former spokesman for the United Nations peacekeeping force in south Lebanon, UNIFIL.

“This is not a war against Hizbollah. This is a war to reshape Lebanese politics. They tried it in 1982, and it will not succeed.... Hizbollah will not just go away.”

While few analysts see Iran and Syria being drawn into direct military conflict with Israel, an Israeli strike on the border with Syria raised fears that the conflict could spread.

Both Syria and Israel denied any rockets had fallen outside Lebanon, but Damascus warned today that it would respond harshly to any attack and the scope for accidental escalation is high as the conflict takes on its own dynamic.

Many rockets Hizbollah has fired at Israel, especially a guided missile that damaged an Israeli warship off Beirut, are Iranian-made or supplied.

Iran has expressed solidarity with Syria and Hizbollah and has warned Israel that it would face “unimaginable damages” if it widened the front.

“Both sides have changed the rules of the game. This has all the makings of a full-scale regional war,” said Amal Saad Ghorayeb, a professor and author of a book on Hizbollah.

EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana arrived in the region today, but his efforts to seek a diplomatic solution will probably gain no traction unless the US pressures Israel to curb its military operations.

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