Chennai, May 7: It could be a school math problem: is 10 kg free rice plus 10 kg at Rs 3.50 a kilo cheaper than 20 kg rice at Rs 2 a kilo?

The freebie war between chief minister Jayalalithaa and her predecessor M. Karunanidhi, however, will be decided not by a calculator but by their credibility in the voters’ eyes.

The DMK chief has run the gamut of sops: free colour TV sets and gas stoves, a two-acre plot for each landless family, a lone waiver for farmers. Jayalalithaa’s reply, after mentioning the mandatory rice sop and loan waiver, has broken new ground by pledging mangalsutras and wedding rings for poor women and computers for needy students.

“Don’t be deceived by her promises,” Union infotech minister Dayanidhi Maran has been telling every rally. But whom does the voter believe?

A tour of the southern districts suggests the DMK-led Democratic Progressive Alliance, which swept all the 40 Lok Sabha constituencies in the state in the 2004 elections, may just have an edge in Monday’s one-phase election. But Karunanidhi cannot take anything for granted, for a large section is strongly sceptical about his ability to walk the talk if voted to power.

What should also encourage Jayalalithaa is the loyalty she evokes among the women, especially in the poor Dalit villages.

Realising that the freebies may not be enough, Karunanidhi has fallen back on the “democracy versus dictatorship” line. Some of the Opposition alliance’s best-known faces, such as Maran and the DMK’s youth wing chief M.K. Stalin, have been reminding voters of the “horrors” of Jayalalithaa rule.

The chief minister had summarily sacked 1.70 lakh striking government employees, including teachers, three years ago and repeated the act when 10,000 road workers took her on a few months ago.

“Jayalalithaa is a despot,” claims P. Chidambaram, whose party, the Congress, is part of the DMK-led coalition. The Union finance minister also obliquely suggests why the ADMK boss mightn’t be well-placed to honour her promises if she keeps her chair.

“The Jayalalithaa government’s propensity to fight the Centre does more harm to the Tamils,” Chidambaram mused.

The fight clearly is between Karunanidhi and Jayalalithaa, though the battle for the 234-member House will see at least a four-cornered contest in every constituency on May 8.

Actor Vijayakant, who last year floated the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) mainly on the strength of his large fan following, will try his luck at 232 seats. The BJP, leading a surprise alliance of 17 small parties including Subramaniam Swamy’s Janata Party, is contesting all 234 as an “alternative front” to the two main Dravidian parties.

The state Forward Bloc boss, screen star M. Karthik, has proved himself no less ambitious. The Bloc is independently contesting from 62 constituencies, mainly in the southern districts where it could cut into the ADMK’s traditional vote bank among the backward Thevars. The Bahujan Samaj Party, not to be left behind, has fielded 164 candidates.

The DMK-led alliance suffered a blow in March when Vaiko’s MDMK left it to join hands with Jayalalithaa, but Karunanidhi argues this will not hurt his coalition which polled 57.40 per cent of the votes in the 2004 general election. The MDMK had then tallied only 5.85 per cent, he says.

The alliance, boosted by Sonia Gandhi’s “sacrifices” and the Manmohan Singh government’s performance, hopes to repeat the success.

The Congress and the Left have been sending top leaders to the state to campaign. Other than Chidambaram, CPM general secretary Prakash Karat and the CPI’s D. Raja have addressed rallies.

Yet Vaiko’s switchover may be a signal that Jayalalithaa is gaining the upper hand in the psychological battle. She has also gained an ally in the Dalit Panthers of India, led by Thol Thirumavalavan, whom she expects to counter the Vanniyar-backed PMK’s dominance in the northern districts.

“People feel safe under me. I am confident we will sweep the polls,” Jayalalithaa says.