The commerce ministry and the commerce minister are congratulating themselves for victory at the World Trade Organization?s Hong Kong ministerial. Given the media glare, protestors galore, large-scale NGO presence and the general hype, popular over-reaction to the sixth ministerial is understandable. But surely the commerce ministry should know better. The Doha work programme was launched in 2001. The DWP negotiations are not complete. Until negotiations are complete and agreements reached, any celebration is premature. The DWP?s agenda caused the failure at the fourth ministerial in Cancun in 2003. However, subsequent meetings in Geneva led to a framework agreement in July 2004, setting out the agenda. And after the Hong Kong ministerial, there is now some kind of deadline for completing the DWP by end-2006, with implementation between 2008 and 2013. But beyond a word here and a sentence there, has there been any progress beyond the July 2004 package? Not quite. Much is being made of G-20 and G-90 solidarity, leading to photo opportunities for G-110 in Hong Kong. But least developed countries have obtained nothing on aid, and the duty-free quota-free package will be rendered relatively useless by rules of origin requirements, exemption of 3 per cent tariff lines and standards and other non-tariff barriers. There will also be pressure on India to work out an LDC package, promised by Mr Kamal Nath in Hong Kong. That apart, developing country solidarity comes with a price, since G-20 interests are not identical to G-90 interests. For instance, service-sector liberalization, where India has an aggressive interest, has been diluted in Hong Kong, thanks to such pressures.

India has some defensive interests in agriculture and manufactured products and a NAMA-11 (non-agricultural market access) group has also been formed. The Hong Kong ministerial declaration establishes a direct link between NAMA and agricultural market access and this can cut both ways. On NAMA, the commerce ministry will argue that a simple Swiss formula (not even one with two coefficients) has not been stated and G-33 pressure has ensured the inclusion of special products and special safeguards mechanisms, the former to be self-designated and the latter to be set off by price triggers, as well as volumes. But all this existed in the July 2004 package and the modalities battle will now intensify in Geneva from April 2006. Pending that, India does not know where it stands. The European Union was committed to the elimination of agro-export subsidies in the July package, and the 2013 end-date hardly represents a big victory. Similarly, US cotton subsidies have already been declared illegal by WTO. The United States of America is the country that yielded the least and got the most, in the limited context of the ministerial declaration.