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Election primer: why, who and what

Iraq votes on Thursday for its first full-term parliament since Saddam Hussein was toppled. Following are some questions and answers on the election:

Why another election?

Iraq held an election on January 30, but that was to choose an interim government to oversee the drafting of a new constitution. The constitution was approved by referendum in October, paving the way for Thursday’s election for a full-term parliament.

In principle, the next government can remain in power for four years, the life of the assembly.

Who can vote?

Fifteen million of Iraq’s 27 million people are eligible to vote and 70 to 80 per cent are expected to do so. Most of the assembly’s 275 seats will be divided among the country’s 18 provinces according to their population.

When will results emerge?

Ballot papers will be counted locally and then brought to Baghdad. The ballots of more than a million Iraqi exiles who may vote abroad will be added. Final results may not emerge for two or three weeks due to the complex proportional representation system and the need to adjudicate any challenges.

What happens then?

The main parties will negotiate to nominate a presidency council consisting of a president and two vice-presidents. A two-thirds majority in parliament must approve the council.

The president will then ask the biggest bloc in parliament to name a prime minister, to be approved by a simple parliamentary majority. The nominee will form a cabinet. A similar process after the January 30 vote took months to complete.

Who is likely to win?

There are no reliable opinion polls in Iraq, but the United Iraqi Alliance (UIA), a grouping of Islamist parties from Iraq’s Shia majority, is expected to win the most votes. However, its share of the vote may fall to around 40 per cent from the 48 per cent it won in January.

The Kurds, now the second biggest bloc in parliament, are likely to get about 25 per cent, closely challenged by former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, whose coalition took 14 per cent in January but may do better this time.

The main new factor is that minority Sunni Arabs, who mostly shunned the January poll, intend to vote this time to ensure they are better represented in the new assembly. A high Sunni Arab turnout will cut the vote share of the Shia Islamist and Kurdish blocs.

What are the issues facing the new government?

Security, the economy, basic public services, crime, changes to the new constitution, the role of Islamic law, the withdrawal of US-led foreign troops, the disbanding of sectarian militias and reviving the oil sector.

All sides agree that tackling the insurgency comes first. Without security, the new government is unlikely to make much headway on Iraq’s many other problems.

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