Post victory, the litmus test for Nitish Kumar, the new chief minister of Bihar, would be to translate a new political alliance of different castes into a lasting social combination ? the art which Lalu Prasad mastered, at least, in his initial years. Hailing from an other-backward-class family ?? Nitish is a Kurmi ?? he succeeded in bringing about the upper castes and a large section of the most backward castes under one umbrella.

However, it is another thing that the electoral process has left the Dalits much more marginalized as their votes got divided among different parties and combinations ?? UPA (or SDF), NDA, LJP, BSP and CPI(M-L). In fact, they were let down by none other than their own leader, Ram Vilas Paswan. This is in total contrast to Uttar Pradesh where Mayavati is still the undisputed leader of the Dalits.

The secret of Lalu Prasad?s early success was in his ability to sew up a strong social combination. In the Lok Sabha polls of 1989 and the assembly elections of 1990, Muslims, Yadavs and some other castes, including Rajputs, voted for the then Janata Dal. Though Muslims and Yadavs found themselves in the same party, they were on opposite poles on the ground ?Yadavs, as a numerically superior group, are alleged to have played a leading role in some of the communal riots both within and outside the state. However, Lalu Prasad was quick to assure the Muslims that with him at the helm, there was no question of communal violence. He even urged the Yadavs to keep away from the communal frenzy and floated the idea of a Muslim-Yadav combination.

Before 1990, Muslims, Brahmins and Dalits used to vote for the Congress. This was more or less a national pattern. But that equation was only political and not social. No attempt was made to bring these three groups together.

Growing apart

Now if Nitish Kumar wants to consolidate his position in this socially fractured state, he needs to bring about a lasting social combination ?? certainly not an easy task. He got an overwhelming number of votes from the strong upper caste lobby, besides getting the support of Kurmis and Banias. Apart from that, he managed to attract a sizeable number of votes from MBCs, whose population in post-Jharkhand, truncated Bihar is about 28 per cent. But the problem with the MBCs is that they are not an integrated group like Yadavs or Muslims. They comprise about 104 castes and have contrasting economic interests. In the rural areas, the interest of these groups clash with the upper castes.

At places, their economic condition is hardly better than that of Dalits and a large number of them have found their way into various extreme left movements. Like Dalits, they too are at loggerheads with the private armies of upper caste farmers like the Ranbir Sena in many districts of south Bihar adjoining Jharkhand.

Notwithstanding the verbal assurances and promises of Lalu Prasad, the growing political and economic influence of Yadavs compelled many MBCs to look towards Nitish Kumar with some hope. At some places in rural Bihar, there is simmering tension between Yadavs and the MBCs and Yadavs and Dalits, but then Yadavs have not indulged in high-profile mass killing like the Ranbir Sena.

Nitish Kumar may certainly try to rein in his own castemen who are economically and educationally better off than the Yadavs, and try to leave more space for the MBCs, but the moot question is whether he would be able to check the other agrarian upper castes.

Though the Jehanabad jailbreak came too late to have an impact on the polls, it certainly widened the division between the upper castes and the backward communities. Nitish Kumar will have to see to it that the Ranbir Sena does not retaliate and further worsen the situation.