What next?

New Delhi, Aug. 13: The attack and overrunning of a Royal Nepal Army (RNA) camp by Maoist rebels in the Himalayan kingdom this week is the latest evidence that the monarch’s military is ill-trained and has neither the numbers nor the firepower to hold its own, intelligence inputs available with the the Indian Army here suggest.

The attack in the high reaches of Kalikote, 600 km west of Kathmandu, was the biggest offensive mounted by the Maoists on the RNA since the February 1 royal coup. Although the Maoists have claimed that the attack was carried out by 300 of their cadre, inputs here suggest the RNA at the Pili camp may have been outnumbered 3:1.

The attack on the Kalikote camp confirms one of the worst fears of the Indian Army: the RNA is not strong enough to guard its own against the Maoist rebels. In other words, arms supplied by India and meant for the RNA are landing in the hands of the Maoists.

In a statement on their website, the Maoists have claimed that in the attack on the Kalikote RNA camp, they have confiscated 70 Insas (Indian) assault rifles with 30,000 rounds of ammunition, 80 self-loading rifles (probably outdated Indian-made 7.62 mm) with 21,000 rounds of ammunition, an 81-mm mortar and explosives.

The RNA’s spokesperson, Brigadier General Deepak Gurung, said Insas rifles had malfunctioned during the battle at Pili in Kalikote that raged from 5 in the evening of August 7 to 4 in the next morning.

The RNA also said 75 of its soldiers were still missing while the chief of the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist), Prachanda, said some 40 soldiers in the custody of its “People’s Liberation Army” will be released in due course.

Both the RNA and the Maoist rebels are fighting with Indian weapons ? the RNA with rifles and ammunition supplied by India and the Maoists with Indian weapons snatched from the king’s army.

The issue of supplying Indian arms to Nepal figured in a meeting of the National Security Council chaired by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh here yesterday evening. It was noted that the Maoists have been saying that their struggle to overthrow the monarchy and establish a republic was in the phase of “strategic offensive”.

Defence minister Pranab Mukherjee has already articulated the fears of the Indian Army ? that has over the years groomed much of the RNA’s officer cadre ? that the king’s army was still too weak and its abilities were doubtful. Nepal has been asking India for weapons desperately as well as scouring the world markets for arms and ammunition since the February 1 coup.

Official sources in Delhi said the security council discussed bilateral relations with Nepal and the internal situation of the country.

“The NSC reviewed India-Nepal bilateral relations in the context of the domestic situation in Nepal. The Prime Minister reiterated India’s stated position that constitutional monarchy and multi-party democracy are the twin pillars of stability in Nepal. He reiterated that disturbing this balance does not serve the long-term interests of the Nepalese people,” an official statement said.