Mumbai, July 31: The domestic pharmaceutical industry will soon pop growth pills to emerge as one of the top 10 drug markets in the world.

The country is already ranked 13th globally with sales close to $4.6 billion in 2004. This is expected to swell to $8.3 billion by 2009 ? an eye-popping 80 per cent growth in five years.

A PricewaterhouseCoopers study said the surge in the pharmaceutical industry is predicted on the basis of two factors. Firstly, the Indian economy will maintain a consistent growth of at least 5 per cent over the next 4-5 years, making it the only emerging economy to grow at such a blistering pace.

Secondly, by 2050, India will replace China as the most populated country with around 1.6 billion people.

Thanks to greater affluence and better hygiene, the population is ageing. By 2025, an estimated 189 million people will be 60 or older, up from 63 million at present. The demand for medicines will shift accordingly, said the study.

In 1999, anti-infective and gastro-intestinal drugs accounted for 53 per cent of the domestic market. By 2010, these are expected to account for 39 per cent. While drugs for cardio-vascular problems, disorders of the central nervous system and other chronic diseases will account for 33 per cent of the total sales, up from 15 per cent in 1999.

Currently, India constitutes about 20 per cent of the global drugs market by volume and only 1 per cent by value. However, Indian consumers? purchasing power is rapidly growing and the country?s changing epidemiological profile could improve its price/volume matrix.

The study has done a quick calculus of all these factors to posit the argument that India will emerge as a key manufacturing destination. ?India has much to offer the leading drug maker,? the study said. ?Only three foreign multinationals rank in the top 10 companies, measured by sales, and even they share only 11.9 per cent of the market between them.?

The study said many local players are generic producers, specialising in anti-infectives. With the increase of the ageing population and the rise in illnesses of the affluent, there will be more demand for innovative and new drugs.

India?s changing therapeutic requirements and more relaxed attitude towards price controls will provide new opportunities to pharmaceutical companies. India has 60 manufacturing sites approved by the US Food and Drug Administration ? the largest number outside the US.

The added benefit is that costs of manufacturing drugs in India are very low. Goldman Sachs estimates that the cost of setting up and running a new manufacturing facility is only a fifth in India compared with the same in the West.

India?s manufacturing clout is posing a threat to western generic firms. The lack of a patent system had helped spawn a vibrant local pharmaceutical industry that excelled in reverse engineering novel drugs and launching copycat versions at home and in other emerging markets. India now produces more than 20 per cent of the world?s generics, the study said.

For instance, Ranbaxy is the world?s second largest manufacturer of cefaclor, the top-selling antibiotic. Lupin is the biggest producer of ethambutol, a tuberculosis treatment, while Dr Reddy?s Laboratories is the second biggest producer of ranitidine, the anti-ulcer drug.