Collingwood is in contention but his inclusion may not send the right signals

England may be one down to Australia, but the selectors seem determined not to be panicked into making changes when, on Sunday, they announce their squad for the second Test at Edgbaston. Continuity has been one of the pillars of England’s recent success and must not be changed now. What is good for the first Test should be good for the second, which starts on Thursday, and with Old Trafford following just two days later, probably the third too.

It is part of Australia’s brilliance that opponents want to alter their plans after just one game, though it usually destabilises a team further. Expect England to comprise the same 12 who played at Lord’s with perhaps a batsman added, should advance intelligence on the pitch prove true.

Paul Collingwood, in fine form for Durham, with 181, 190 and 105 in the championship against Derbyshire and Somerset, has already been widely tipped as being the extra man. But if there is to be one, the next in contention is surely Robert Key (968 runs at 60.5 this season), though Ed Joyce (1,123 runs at 80) also has his proponents.

The argument that Collingwood has the measure of the Australians, simply on the evidence of the recent one-day series against them, is hardly clinched by his record ? 110 runs in five knocks. Nor will his fine fielding definitely cure England’s butterfingers ? after all, catches are not guaranteed to find the best fielder. Naming Collingwood, or indeed anyone not in the squad for the opening Test, would hardly send a vote of confidence to England’s middle order.

Indeed, with everyone fit, the speculation would simply add more stress to a team already under pressure from Australia. Ashes series place a special pressure on players. Ashley Giles revealed, when he had a midweek whinge against former players following their criticism of England’s performance at Lord’s.

Giles is probably feeling the strain of Australia’s decision to attack him to force Vaughan to wear out Steve Harmison and Andrew Flintoff, a tactic confirmed by the visitors’ coach, John Buchanan.

While some will feel outraged if changes are not made, the selectors will probably argue that while England were defeated at Lord’s, by a huge margin of 239 runs, the match was actually lost in just one or two key moments. Yet, as Mark Taylor often used to point out during his time as captain, they are the moments that separate winning from losing and Australia win them more often than not.

But even if you buy into that view, too many performances for England were below par with Ian Bell and all having forgettable games at Lord’s. You cannot carry ballast against Australia and expect to win, unless you have consistent performers such as Shane Warne, Glenn McGrath and Adam Gilchrist ? three of the greatest ever to have pulled on a baggy green.

Perhaps most worrying for the selectors and the team’s chances of pulling a Test back, is Flintoff’s poor form with the bat. He scored just 0 and 3 at Lord’s. Twenty-four years ago, Ian Botham left Lord’s with a pair and smashed his way into folklore. Could Big Freddie be about to do the same?