Guwahati, July 8: The weatherman today warned that the mild drought experienced by Assam due to scanty rainfall could turn into a full-blown one if the monsoon continue to evade the state.

Re-analysis of the weather pattern over the last few days revealed that rainfall in the state till now has been around 35 per cent less. ?If the deficit reaches the 50 per cent mark, we will have a full-fledged drought,? deputy director-general of Regional Meteorological Centre at Borjhar, D. Chakraborty, said.

?There is no sign of rainfall for the next few days as the monsoon clouds are concentrated over Orissa, Andhra Pradesh and coastal areas of Bay of Bengal,? he added.

?Drought would be officially announced when the rainfall deficiency reaches 59 per cent,? he added.

According to the Met office?s analysis, there are several reasons for the deficit, including the two-week delay in the arrival of monsoon, oscillation of monsoon trough towards the southern side of the country and lack of low pressure over the Bay of Bengal.

He said the deficiency in the present rainfall could be assessed from a comparison with rainfall in the state in the corresponding period last year when Assam experienced the second wave of floods in the first week of July.

Floodwaters had entered the Kaziranga National Park on July 1, forcing the animals to shift their location to neighbouring Karbi Anglong hills. The Brahmaputra river had reached an all-time high level in the city in the second week of July. Last year Assam experienced floods even before the full onset of monsoons, he added.

However, the reason for floods in parts of Upper Assam, especially in Dhemaji and North Lakhimpur districts, cited by the weather office is scanty rainfall in the neighbouring Arunachal Pradesh (experiencing minus 36 per cent deficient rainfall).

?Since the entire monsoon season is lying ahead of us, we should not be too negative. We are closely monitoring the situation. The mainland areas of the country like Himachal Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh are experiencing floods since the monsoon trough is lying on the southern side,? he said.

Chakraborty said farmers in the state are sure to be hit if the scanty rainfall continues till the end of this month.

There have been unofficial reports of drought-like situation from Lower Assam as well as Upper Assam districts. The weather office said it has not received any specific report.

Oblivious of the weather office prediction, Dispur is gearing up to tackle the flood problems in the state. The chief minister?s office has sent official communiqu? to all the deputy commissioners to make arrangements for tackling floods.